Jerome McDonnell on Chicago Public Radio's "World View" interviews Cherif Bassouini, President, International Human Rights Law Institute at DePaul University.
McDonnell: The constitutional process was certainly confusing in Iraq. The original deadline for the draft was extended several times. Last-minute changes were made without parliamentary approval, and the constitution contains a provision which will allow changes to continue in the constitution during the next few months. Cherif Bassouini gave me his thoughts on how the constitution process in Iraq went down.
Cherif Bassouini: Well, it's a very curious process. This was essentially driven by the US. This is part of the US agenda -- #1 to show some sign of success in Iraq and some progress, and also because it paves the way for a permanent Iraqi government to be established so that the US can then map out an exit strategy. While this is perfectly legitimate and justified, the problem is that there are many issues in Iraq that needed more time to decant. The introduction of a new concept of federalism in a country that had sort of been glued together by even the repressive regime of Saddam was now being unglued and a new federalism was being put in place. But nobody has thought it out. For example, nobody thought out what are the boundaries of a region. And a community opts in and out so that, for example, a Chicago suburb can decide, Well, I'm going to join Chicago tomorrow but then maybe if Chicago doesn't give me enough, I'm going to join maybe another community tomorrow! How are the taxes levied? How are revenues shared? What about natural resources? All of these questions haven't been addressed so far and so, in the rush to get a constitution, both the US and those supporting the US in Iraq say that, Well, we can deal with these issues later. Same thing with women's issues. They can say, Well, okay, we've got constitution that Islam is the primary source of law but there are issues of minority's rights and women's rights... and we'll deal with that later. So the thorny issues were left for "we will deal with that later"! So, necessarily, the process had to include a second stage. But as the process evolved in the primary stage, and it became quite obvious that the Sunni weren't participating, both the US as well as the Shi'a and Kurdish communities in Iraq started downplaying the numbers. So suddenly the Sunnis went down from being over 30% to being barely 20% and, as is frequently the case, if you're not in the room, your voice can't be heard. So the Sunnis were left out and now they want back in.
McDonnell: What do you make of Sunni participation? Because it seems like the Administration is saying, Well, look -- they voted and most of them voted against it but at least they are participating now whereas they were boycotting before and in the long run this is going to be a good thing. They're going to be having input down the road as they throw this into the National Assembly. What did you make of Sunni participation?
Bassouini: Well, I think Sunni participation was obviously a protest vote, and it's a protest vote that came when the Sunnis realized that the Shi'a's and the Kurds -- and I'm going to exaggerate now to make the point -- were going to [steal it? inaudible] again. Because they were there. They were there, they had a process that was somewhat legitimized by the US, and the US was backing it, and they realized that this federalism was soon going to mean that the country would be split in three. And if that's the case, that would be the worst possible outcome not only for the Sunni but also for Iraq in general and, I would say, for the stability of the region.
McDonnell: Do you buy that? that the constitution is going to drive the country apart, split it up?
Bassouini: No, not the constitution. The constitution is merely another sort of phase that will allow the process of disintegration to take place. If you look at the Kurds, the Kurds would be quite satisfied for the complete autonomy which they have had for the past ten years to continue. They are quite uncertain about Turkish reaction and very apprehensive. So they need to digest the complete autonomy which would now be enshrined in the constitution. So that issue for the Kurds would be maybe ten years down the pike. On the Shi'a side there are concerns because there are really three factions among the Shi'a. There's the al Sistani faction which is potentially an Iraqi nationalist faction; there is the Haqim faction which is completely pro-Iranian and would soon turn over the Shi'a area to complete Iranian control; and there's Sadr who is really a maverick and who's now being manipulated by Ahmed Chalabi, our former crony, who has found a patron there with the political and military muscle to back him up. So that, too, is an area in which there is a great deal of uncertainty. They will need to digest their new autonomy and need to find out who is going to be on top of the agenda. If it's al Sistani, then obviously it means they will have to find an accomodation with the Sunni on power-sharing. If it's the pro-Iranians and Sadr as a maverick then joins the pro-Iranians, then we're in trouble. Right now is the setting of the stage for what will unfold in the next decade.
McDonnell: And you call it "a process of disintegration."
Bassouini: I call it a process of disintegration because the objective of any nation-building, in my judgment, should be to cement a nation together, to cement a people together, to break down the divisions of ethnicity and religion that we know by experience sow hatred. And so for the US to promote an extensive notion of federalism and regionalism that can only play out in a break-up of the country and can only play out in setting up enmities between the people is a very dangerous path to follow.
McDonnell: And there's a Sunni gentleman who's had an editorial in the New York Times today, and he said the constitution is about the Kurds. That's who it's written for and it's going to be about a Kurdish state in the future. Is that a reasonable conclusion for a Sunni politician to come to?
Bassouini: Well, the Sunni politicians hope they can find an accomodation with the Shi'a politicians who are nationalists, and that's al Sistani's movement. So the Sunni politicians will not want to antagonize the Shi'a at this point. What they will do is they will aim their barbs at the Kurds. Within the Kurdish community, there is no doubt that if they could have an independent state tomorrow, they would do it. The only reason they don't want to make that visible is because they're afraid of the Turks. The Turks, if that were the case, the Turkish army would move into Kurdistan tomorrow. So what they're doing is they're planning it carefully. They're cementing their rights in a new constitution and they're gradually moving to be able to take control of the Kirkuk area, so that if and when the time is ripe for them to become a state, they'll not only have the territory but the resources.
McDonnell: ...What did you make of the fraud allegations that were out there, and there's a lot of talk about fraud in some of the provinces where you wouldn't expect any fraud to happen. They got 99% turnout and 90% of them voted for the constitution. And then there are fraud allegations in some of the Sunni areas too -- where the constitution could have possibly gotten even more votes against. What do you make of the legitimacy of the exercise?
Bassouini: There's no doubt that the electoral process was done hastily, that there weren't enough monitors, there wasn't enough of a supervision system. The whole process was in the hands of the government. There was no external supervision that could verify what's taking place. The system of transporting ballot boxes which are huge plastic containers can very easily be changed. An entire box can be dumped and another box take its place. Ballots that are usually filled by a sign or some mark can easily be faked. So the potential for this type of abuse is very, very open.
McDonnell: So we should look forward to the December elections for the National Assembly.
Bassouini: I think so. I think that's going to be a more interesting exercise and people will have a little more scrutiny over what's going on. Right now, unfortunately, there are small things that go a long way in a society like Iraq's. So when Sec'y of State Condoleezza Rice, in London, said she thinks that the Iraqi people will adopt the constitution before the vote has started, it sort of feeds into the rumor mill: Oh, the fix is in! Everybody believes that there is a little bit of a fix that's already in, so the question in everybody's mind now is how big is the fix going to be!
McDonnell: And if you're Sunni and you participated in the election -- and apparently they participated in good numbers -- do you come away from this disenchanted and "I don't want to participate in future elections," or do you come away from it saying "Well, I'm going to try again."
Bassouini: I think the risks are much higher. I think that what will happen is if the Sunnis come out of this experience believing that the vote was rigged, the constitution was adopted because that's what the Americans and the present coalition of Shi'a and Kurds want it to be, then this is going to drive many more of the youth into the hands of the national resistance. It's going to increase and stiffen the national resistance. And that means more casualties, more destruction of life and more disintegration of the country. So the stakes are much, much higher than just getting a constitution so that somebody in Washington can put a good spin on it and s how the Administration has made a success. And I'm sure that people the US ambassador in Baghdad, Ambassador Khalilzad and others are quite conscious of this danger. And so it's a question of how to balance public perception.
McDonnell: I can't help but ask you a few questions about Saddam Hussein's appearance in court that's going to happen this week apparently. And this is a little like the constitutional process. There's some kind of process going on but nobody knows exactly where it's going, and it sounds like the whole process for trying Saddam Hussein is a little similar.
Bassouini: Well, the similarity is that the US is behind both efforts. And I should add it is doing it, I should add, to a large extent in good faith. It's doing it in its belief that it's helping the country. But the US does not have the kind of of... let me call it "diplomatic finesse" and experience that an old colonial power like Great Britain or France would have. And so our fingerprints are all over the place. As we try to balance things out and make things look better, we sometimes stumble into big blunders which make us look worse. So we have a trial of Saddam coming up. Think about it this way: the law under which he is tried is a law that was promulgated by Ambassador Bremer when he represented the US as a foreign occupying power. The statute was drafted in English. It was translated into Arabic and it's poorly translated. Those from the Department of Justice who contributed to it added a lot of the features of an American trial. Which doesn't really fit with an Iraqi trial. The trial is going to be in the Green Zone which is controlled by the US. The court has been rebuilt with US funds. The judges are within the Green Zone and they're under the protection of the US. All of the costs of the tribunal, including the salaries of the judges, are paid by the US. So what will that convey to the Iraqi people? You see, most people don't realize that the Iraqi people are totally convinced that Saddam committed terrible crimes. For them it's not a question of, Let's go to trial to find out whether he killed 5,000 Kurds by using gases or whether he tortured people that were dissidents. Everybody knows that. So for the Iraqi people it's not a question of discovering the facts. It's not a question of, Oh, we have an innocent man here and maybe we need to prove whether he was guilty. So the next question becomes, If we know he's done these things, what is the purpose of a trial? Is the purpose of a trial to record history? To educate the people? Does it have any other political purpose? And many in Iraqi society believe this is really a trial set up by Americans in order to prove how bad Saddam is so as to justify the American invasion. And that is really the worst type of reaction that we could engender. Because I think this is an important historic occasion to show, not only in Iraq but in the Arab world, the importance of the rule of law. And we may just botch it up to the point that instead of being that, it would turn out to be a sort of farcical political comedy.
McDonnell: What does the rule of law exercise in this case look like? If everyone in this case thinks he's guilty and nobody really cares about a trial -- and basically wants to just get to it? How do you make a rule of law situation out of that?
Bassouini: Well, first of all there's one thing that has developed since the statute was passed, and that is my efforts with the Iraqi government and with the US government to have the law changed so that it is enacted by the current parliament of Iraq. I should say that the new law has been adopted by the current parliament. However, it cannot enter into effect until thirty days after publication in the official gazette. And that hasn't occurred yet. Somebody miscalculated the time. And so this first trial is going to go on under the old law which is the Bremer law as opposed to the new law. That's one of the problems that we're going to have to face. Once that's done, I think there's a political question. I think it would be extremely important to allow Saddam as much leeway in his trial as possible. I realize there's a danger -- he turns the trial into a political platform and all of that. But I think it is better to run the risk of letting him run at the mouth, and be prepared for it, rather than try to muzzle him and control everything and stage everything so that the trial itself looks staged and stale.
McDonnell: And right now there's going to be one US reporter allowed in to watch it. There are arguments over whether it should be televised. All those dangers are right there.
Bassouini: Well, and the problem is that the people haven't given much thought to it from a long time ago. It's like these issues are just surfacing now as if nobody knew about them. While the idea of preparing for this particular case has been going on now for almost six months! It's really just another indication of how low priority this is in the scale of priorities of the Administration. It's something the NSC hardly deals with. DOS is out of the loop as is DOD and it's something left to the Department of Justice. The Department of Justice is not equipped to deal with international affairs. And it has sort of sunk down to a very low level. With all due respect to him, the person who's in charge of running this tribunal on behalf of the US is a former state representative from New Hampshire! It's not one of those things in which the US administration has given it high priority, is placing a high level person in charge of it.