Like it or not, the Electoral College decides the election. And the Electoral College vote depends heavily on "swing states." And the swing states aren't being nice to Mitt Romney. The popular vote is still fairly close. But the drama is upstairs -- that's where the election is decided.
Things can change, but they can also stabilize soon after the conventions. Silver writes:
The expectation embedded in the forecast model is that Mr. Obama’s convention bounce is about fully priced into the polls by now, and that his numbers probably will be facing some downward pressure over the next week or two. However, it also seems unlikely that his numbers will decline all at once, barring intervening news events.
If Mr. Obama’s polls do not show any signs of decline at all over the next week or two, that would qualify as good news for him — and, obviously, it would be bad news for him if the race reverts back to its preconvention norms almost immediately. But for now, our forecast has stabilized a bit, with Mr. Obama holding in the range of about a four-point lead in the popular vote and an 80 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Of course, there has been a significant news event, with the killing of the United States ambassador in Libya and three members of his staff....NYT
