Not so much.
In Missouri, a new SurveyUSA poll put Mr. Romney just one point ahead of President Obama, with 45 percent of the vote to 44 percent.
This is a fairly poor number for Mr. Romney — who had led in our Missouri forecast by six percentage points previously — but not quite as bad as it looks. This is SurveyUSA’s first poll of Missouri so far this cycle, but its polls in other states have been a bit Democratic-leaning relative to the consensus. Perhaps more important, Missouri is no longer a state that plays a critical role in the electoral math. Mr. Romney could lose it. (His chances of doing so rose to 18 percent from 15 percent on the new survey.) But he had a reasonably big cushion there from previous polling, and the state will probably only flip to Mr. Obama in the event that he is winning the Electoral College decisively.
The only potential worry for Mr. Romney is that about half of the interviews in the SurveyUSA poll were conducted after his selection of Mr. Ryan — but since there are no trendlines for comparison, I don’t think we can read too much into that. ...538, NYT
Obama is down by a point to a three-point lead in New Hampshire, but on the whole "Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the state were roughly unchanged, declining to 72 percent from 73 percent," Nate Silver writes.
And Ryan's early numbers? NPR has been making a pretty big deal of the Florida yesterday where the cheers were loud and clear. But that may have been a fluke. Nationally, the polls are "middling to poor."
... A few polls were released that were dedicated to Mr. Ryan specifically, and they offered mediocre numbers for the Republican ticket.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted after Mr. Romney’s announcement, found that 38 percent of Americans had a favorable view of Mr. Ryan, and 33 percent had an unfavorable one.
The good news for Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan is that those numbers were improved from polling that ABC News conducted just before the announcement, when 23 percent of adults had a favorable impression of Mr. Ryan and 33 percent an unfavorable one.
But that is countered by two pieces of bad news. First, Mr. Ryan’s numbers are middling to poor by the standard of other recent vice-presidential selections. And second, the period immediately after a vice-presidential announcement has often been a high-water mark for the new candidate. ...538, NYT
