Sarah Kliff, at WaPo's Wonkblog, checks out the insurance industry's response to Supreme Court arguments. The five largest companies saw their stock go up dramatically.
Coming out of this week’s argument, however, health insurance investors actually look incredibly bullish on the Affordable Care Act’s future. O’Brien points out that Aetna’s stock soared in the 24 hours since oral arguments wrapped up. And that actually looks to be true for the five largest health insurance companies, all while the Dow Jones average has remained pretty flat. ...WaPo
Kliff assesses what The Atlantic's Matt O'Brien has to say about what this may mean.
This could, as O’Brien points out, be really good news for Obamacare — or really bad.
On the one hand, it could suggest that the insurance industry expects the law, with its mandate, to stand, bringing in 16 million new customers. On the other, this could be investors signaling that they think the justices will wipe the entire law off the books, relieving insurers of the requirement to accept very sick, less lucrative patients.
In oral arguments, the justices did seem skeptical about the idea of picking and choosing which parts of the health reform law would have to fall if the individual mandate went down. “A common reaction, across the bench, was that the Justices themselves did not want the onerous task of going through the remainder of the entire 2,700 pages of the law and deciding what to keep and what to throw out, and most seemed to think that should be left to Congress,” writes SCOTUS Blog’s Lyle Denniston. “They could not come together, however, on just what task they would send across the street for the lawmakers to perform.” [emphasis added]
As for the insurance industry, America’s Health Insurance Plans spokesman Robert Zirkelbach says that plans have not changed in light of oral arguments. While they are looking at “planning for any potential Supreme Court ruling,” right now they continue to treat the Affordable Care Act as the law of the land.
“No one knows what they’re ultimately going to decide,” says Zirkelbach. “We’ll find out in June. In the meantime, our focus continues to be on implementing the new requirements in a way that will be the least disruptive and costly to consumers.” ...WaPo
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This is what one Washington Post commenter believes:
Looks to me like the fix is in. If the law stands, the insurance companies get 16 million new customers. If it is overturned, their industry is doomed, and they know it. ...
