The Congressional debacle has improve the outlook for the president.
The holiday brinkmanship over the issue recalled the December budget showdown 16 years ago between another first-term Democratic president, Bill Clinton, and a new Republican Congressional majority — a fight that capped their year of confrontation over the nation’s fiscal priorities by reviving Mr. Clinton politically as he began his re-election race. ...NYT
That's a boost for President Obama, but a downer for Democrats who seemed determined to lose -- or at least "fret," as the Times reports.
But the impasse was not without risks for Mr. Obama. Democrats fretted that Mr. Obama’s vow to stay in Washington through Christmas and New Year’s to get a deal would backfire should he join his family in Hawaii before a resolution. Also, though House Republicans were bearing the brunt of criticism for the latest show of Washington dysfunction, Mr. Obama could be hurt if the tax break and jobless aid are not extended and the fragile economy sours, as nonpartisan economic forecasters have warned it will without the continued stimulus measures. ...NYT
There's some suggestion in the Times that Obama will get blamed in the end because of his "2009 campaign promise to make Washington work ..." Isn't that several steps too far into "if we say something nice, then we have to add a downer"? Suppose Obama had promised to drive from Washington to San Diego in under fifty hours and then all gas stations decided to close down for three days? That's, like, his fault?
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Then there's the economy. Things are looking up. But a "balanced report"? Down again?
As the fourth quarter draws to a close, a spate of unexpectedly good economic data suggests that it will have some of the fastest and strongest economic growth since the recovery started in 2009, causing a surge in the stock market and cheering economists, investors and policy makers.
In recent weeks, a broad range of data — like reports on new residential construction and small business confidence — have beaten analysts’ expectations. Initial claims for jobless benefits, often an early indicator of where the labor market is headed, have dropped to their lowest level since May 2008. And prominent economics groups say the economy is growing three to four times as quickly as it was early in the year, at an annual pace of about 3.7 percent. ...NYT
But... Congress could stop the upturn.
Many forecasters say the recent uptick probably does not represent the long-awaited start to a strong, sustainable recovery. Much of the current strength is caused by temporary factors. And economists expect growth to slow in the first half of 2012 to an annual pace of about 1.5 to 2 percent.
Even that estimate could be optimistic if Washington lawmakers fail to extend aid for the long-term unemployed and a payroll tax cut for the United States’ 160 million wage earners. ...NYT
Merry Christmas says the New York Times! But no gifts, no food.
