In fact, what was beginning to appear to be a surefire Republican majority in the Senate is now looking pretty uncertain. Why? The Times reports growing dissension within the Republican party.
... On a state by state basis, there are factors that give the Democrats hope and the Republicans pause. In states like Nebraska, tensions between the Tea Party movement and so-called establishment factions of the party threaten to roil the base. Florida and Pennsylvania have muddled Republican primary fields, with multiple candidates and no real standouts.
In addition to Nebraska, Ohio and Michigan stand out as battlegrounds within the party.
Conventional wisdom is that the Senate will flip, leaving Republicans with the same majority Democrats + two independents have now. But all this depends on the outcome of some contentious Republican primaries.
The biggest fear among Republicans is of divisive primaries in which Tea Party-backed candidates prevail in states where they cannot win the general election, as happened in 2010 in Delaware, Colorado and Nevada, or that weaken the preferred candidate in the process.
In Nebraska, Senator Jim DeMint, the South Carolina Republican who is influential among conservatives nationwide, has endorsed Don Stenberg in the race to unseat Mr. Nelson, a Democrat. Mr. Stenberg is a conservative underdog whose fund-raising has badly trailed that of Attorney General Jon Bruning, the frontrunner in that primary.
In 2010, Mr. DeMint similarly promoted the insurgent conservative candidacy in Colorado of Ken Buck, helping propel Mr. Buck to the nomination but allowing the Democrat, Senator Michael Bennet, to argue that Mr. Buck was too far right.
Fears of ideologically divisive primaries often keep the best candidates from running, some Republican officials said.
“We are having trouble recruiting,” said Martha Breene, the chairwoman of the Venango County Republican party in Pennsylvania. ...NYT
