Joshua Green watches as Sarah Palin climbs in and out of her biker gear.
Going rogue has one principal benefit: it draws attention. But she would never have lacked for that, and following the established course of a presumed front-runner would have given her a number of salutary benefits.
To begin with, she'd probably be leading in the polls. After the 2008 election, Palin was the GOP's hottest commodity, a bona fide sensation who had captivated a party brought low by George W. Bush. Had she taken on the role of leader-in-waiting, she would have been difficult to challenge. Instead, she kept everyone guessing and let other candidates emerge, and, in Romney's case, overtake her.
Palin's greatest vulnerability is the impression that she's erratic. A well-orchestrated campaign like the one that Karl Rove rolled out for Bush ahead of the 2000 primaries could have mollified some skeptics. Like Palin, Bush was regarded as callow and not quite up to the job. Those doubts mostly vanished after a carefully arranged regimen of policy conferences, thematic speeches, and personal appeals to major GOP donors. By contrast, Palin's support among Republicans has declined steadily since the last election. As her bus zigzags between national landmarks, trailed by an army of reporters mystified about her plans and intentions, she seems more erratic than ever.
It's a little unsettling to see a comparison of Palin with Bush. The Bush decade was so destructive in so many ways even the most anti-Bush are still standing goggle-eyed. That a clever campaign by Rove (and I don't think Joshua Green is over-reaching) might elevate Palin right into the White House suggests so many failures in our culture that one doesn't want to think about it.
Which makes this even harder to take:
Despite this, she doesn't look in such bad shape. A recent Gallup poll put her two points behind the front-runner, Romney. And she's sure to get even more attention. But as Hillary Clinton and Howard Dean discovered, that only gets you so far. It takes an experienced, organized campaign to win the nomination. Soon, Palin will point her bus toward Iowa. Coverage will reach a fever pitch. She may imagine that she's on her way to the White House. ...
Except for this: a sign of relief!
... But it's much likelier that she's on the road to nowhere.
