There's been a slew of reports about how well the Democrats are doing (suddenly? surprisingly?) in the race for big campaign money.
President Barack Obama, for his part, appears on top of his own game. Having quickly declared his candidacy, his campaign manager Jim Messina has already mapped out a plan of getting 400 major donors to raise $350,000 each by the end of the year. By forcing the campaign finance issue so early and so soon on GOP hopefuls, he is already shaping the GOP primary outcome. ...Faster Times
That may be one of the biggest reasons why Haley Barbour suddenly discovered he's lost the "fire in his belly" and has stepped down. Thune and Pence are both staying away, too.
Michael Shear, writing in The Caucus, cites five reasons why Republicans are edging away from a fight. One is that they'll have a much better chance in 2016 when there'll be no incumbent to worry about and Biden, incumbent veep, will be too old to run again. Another is the improving economy -- Mitt Romney admitted that's something that's cooled his interest down a bit.
3. Money. Mr. Obama is expected in some quarters to raise $1 billion for his re-election campaign, and he has no serious primary opposition, which means he will be free to aim that firepower at his Republican adversaries. For a potential challenger, that raises the stakes for fund-raising at a time when more outside groups are competing for the same dollars, many of which, even on the Republican side, would go to congressional races.
Reports have it that Democratic fundraisers are patterning their efforts on the success of Karl Rove's organizations and on other groups of successful Republican moneybaggers. As a result, the Dems are raising megabucks -- in spite of Wall Street which is stepping back to the right.
OpenSecrets.org reports:
Despite dismal electoral results for Democrats nationally in 2010, fund-raising powerhouse ActBlue had its most prolific period on record. The political committee, which serves as an online conduit of contributions for Democrats of all stripes, funneled approximately $60 million to federal candidates and committees during the 2010 election cycle.
That's roughly four times as much money as the group bundled during the 2006 midterm election -- and nearly 70 times as much as they doled out during their inaugural election season in 2004, according to research by the Center for Responsive Politics.
Then, says Shear, there's the tea party and the matter of whether they're useful or harmful to potential candidates.
4. The Tea Party. The emergence of the Tea Party movement as a force inside the Republican Party requires potential presidential candidates to pick sides in an intraparty philosophical struggle. The risks are clear for some Republicans who may have to alter or modify earlier positions to get through a contentious primary. Less clear are the benefits of having that support during a general election, especially if it means alienating independents in the process. Some of the most high-profile Tea Party candidates in 2010 did not fare so well in the general election.
And then, finally there are all us nasty bloggers and people with camera phones looking out for scandals, not to mention videos revealing racism or sexual deliquency or sheer ignorance -- the "macaca" moment that brings down such excellent candidates as George Allen.
5. The media glare. Candidates for president have always had to contend with scrutiny from the press. But the intense, Internet-driven political environment in 2011, when everyone has a camera phone and every offhand comment can be recorded, is enough to scare away even the most hearty of politicians. Mr. Barbour’s family apparently hated the idea of his running for president (though reports suggest that they had made peace with the idea, were he to have run). Candidates who have been on the fence about making a run often consider the consequences to their privacy if they do.
If only the internet and cameras and digital recorders didn't exist -- if only Republicans could take full control of all the media! -- these irksome problems wouldn't act as deterrents to charmers like Haley Barbour.
