Probably not, unless he pulls a Clinton 1998.
Ezra Klein has posted the pluses and minuses for presidents' ratings right after their State of the Union address and most rate from zip to minus 4 mixed in with some goose eggs. Clinton is the only president who has gotten a big, big bounce -- 10 points -- in 1998 and W in 2005 with 6 (how did that happen?!) Reagan took some deep dives.
Klein posts the video of Clinton's address in case you want to compare it with what we hear tonight.
