In a fit of triumphalism, The Hill is touting a massive 50-seat win in the House for Republicans. It's too early in the morning to remember exactly, but wasn't it more "massive" than that a little while ago?
Even so, here's The Hill's take on next week's wipe out of "President Obama's party."
Republicans are headed for a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House.
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.
Closer to the bottom of the page, the AEI demurs.
The American Enterprise Institute’s John Fortier said The Hill’s data bolstered his prediction that Republicans will take the House with roughly a 10-seat majority.
“The underlying demographics so strongly favor Republicans that it’s hard to see them not taking the majority,” said Fortier. But, he says, The Hill’s data reveal “significant disillusionment” with both parties. Fortier predicts a GOP gain somewhere in the 45- to 50-seat range, but says a gain of more than 50 would surprise him.
Even so The Hill is certain it's a referendum on (Hussein?) Obama.
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Elsewhere, according to The Atlantic, some believe the Dems could, in the end, keep the House. A long shot. A very long shot. Here are a couple of the speculators:
"It's a tricky path, but it's a path we've seen traveled before in politics," reads an entry at MSNBC's First Read blog. "To win, you have to run the table." What does this mean? "First, Democrats need to win the four or five GOP-held seats they're counting on... which would increase the Republicans' Magic Number from 39 to 43 or 44 (i.e., the GOP needs to pick up 43 or 44 seats to win back the House)." Then, Dems would need to win "an overwhelming majority" of the 23 "Toss-Up contests where they're still competing." If this doesn't happen, "Republicans will win the majority. It's that simple."
For Newsweek's Eleanor Clift, it's all about mobilizing the base, 2008-style. "Imagine... if women and minorities and the young all got energized," she writes. "Obama must do more in the next week to make his economic case, and to clarify the choice facing voters: which party and which candidate has a reasonable chance of making things better?" Clift adds that "the White House has garbled its message on this until now. Obama must persuade voters to allow him more time, and to give his policies a chance to work."
