Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans in the final phase of the midterm Congressional elections, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. ...
... If women choose Republicans over Democrats in House races on Tuesday, it will be the first time they have done so since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.
The poll provides a pre-Election Day glimpse of a nation so politically disquieted and disappointed in its current trajectory that 57 percent of the registered voters surveyed said they were more willing to take a chance this year on a candidate with little previous political experience. More than a quarter of them said they were even willing to back a candidate who holds some views that “seem extreme.” ...NYT
When the right jumps all over figures like Nancy Pelosi, they reveal their dependence on the right wing media pipeline. It's beginning to look odd when other members of the media, like the Times, avoid citing pit bull media as a major influence on many poll respondents. But in spite of that influence, the poll shows Obama and the Democrats are favored in important ways.
A higher percentage of Americans continues to have a more favorable opinion of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party, with 46 percent favoring Democrats and 41 favoring Republicans. But the Republicans’ favorability rating in the New York Times/CBS poll is at its highest level since September 2006.
Disapproval of Congress, however, remains near its highest level in the history of the Times/CBS poll: 76 percent of respondents disapproved, 14 percent approved, and 10 percent expressed no opinion.
Mr. Obama’s approval rating remains below 50 percent. It is 43 percent among registered voters, which is about where President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was in the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans swept control of the House and the Senate.
Yet nearly 60 percent of Americans were optimistic about Mr. Obama’s next two years in office and nearly 70 percent said the economic slump is temporary. Half said the economy was where they expected it would be at this point, and less than 10 percent blamed the current administration for the state of the economy, leaving the onus on former President George W. Bush and Wall Street.
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As the host, Jon Stewart, needled him ... When Mr. Stewart asked why Mr. Obama, after promising to shake things up, had brought in old Democratic hands like Lawrence H. Summers, the Clinton Treasury secretary, Mr. Obama offered what, for Mr. Summers, was perhaps an unfortunate reply.
“In fairness,” he said, “Larry Summers did a heck of a job.” ...NYT
WaPo's Dana Milbank takes the story forward -- to defensive disaster for Obama.
"In fairness," the president replied defensively, "Larry Summers did a heckuva job."
"You don't want to use that phrase, dude," Stewart recommended with a laugh.
Dude. The indignity of a comedy show host calling the commander in chief "dude" pretty well captured the moment for Obama. He was making this first-ever appearance by a president on the Daily Show as part of a long-shot effort to rekindle the spirit of '08. In the Daily Show, Obama had a friendly host and an even friendlier crowd.
But, as in his MTV appearance a couple of weeks ago, Obama didn't try to connect with his youthful audience. He was serious and defensive, pointing a finger at his host several times as he quarreled with the premise of a question.
Listen, I don't enjoy watching the president squirm but I'm convinced one of the rare reliable news sources we have on the screen comes from Jon Stewart. By far. At the very least he is, as Milbank points out, "an able inquisitor on behalf of aggrieved liberals." And independents. Well, for people who aren't opposed to actually thinking and that always includes a varying number of Republicans.
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Obama remains popular. His prospects for 2012 appear to be unaffected by what happens to to Congress in the midterms.
A majority of voters see the midterm election as a referendum on Barack Obama, but most have not decided whether they’ll vote against the president in 2012, according to a poll by The Hill. ...54 percent of those polled said Republicans winning back control of Congress this year would have no impact on their vote in 2012. An even higher number of independents, 62 percent, said a Republican Congress would have no impact on their vote for president in 2012.
The results point to a paradox of the 2010 election: While it is clear voters worried about government spending and record deficits want to put a brake on the Obama administration, they do not appear to have given up on the president.
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The Hill's latest midterm poll conflicted about budget cuts.
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll found that an overwhelming percentage of Republican voters want Congress to focus on spending cuts, even if it means bringing home less money to their state. But they don’t want this at the expense of big social programs or defense.
Seventy-one percent of likely Republican voters in 10 House battleground districts said Congress should cut spending, even if it means fewer projects and earmarks for their local areas. A majority of likely independent voters, 56 percent, think the same.
But the same poll found that Republicans and independents balk at the prospect of cutting programs that constitute a vastly larger portion of the federal budget.
A Republican pollster seems surprised to find that new and younger voters are neither populists nor do they lean Republican.
There are only two things standing in the breach, blocking a broad Republican landslide, and both surprise me. They are also interrelated, which confounds me. First, the new voters of 2008 may actually vote at higher levels than expected and exhibit more partisanship than I anticipated. Second, the total domination of jobs as the most important issue is not helping Republicans like it should. ...
...All along throughout the campaigns, I have been keeping my eye on the “new” voters, those who registered and voted for the first time in 2008 or who have registered since. In the main, these voters are younger, 34 years of age and under. They also tend to be Democrat and left-leaning, but affluent enough that their ideology is not populist or Marxist. My initial sense of them was that they entered the electorate infused with idealism for the symbols that Obama represents — more so than with commitment to his ideology and issue agenda.
And this comes as a blow to the Republicans.
I’m discouraged overall. Listening to these new voters in focus groups and polls, my reaction is akin to the old fart who complains that the younger generation doesn’t understand history and economics. The new generation, in particular, holds a very different, non-traditional sense of where jobs come from. The older generation thinks that the private sector creates jobs. The younger generation believes this to an extent, but also thinks more of public-sector jobs as part of the mix. So the new voters don’t necessarily subscribe to notion of smaller, less costly government that frees up more capital for business and industry. For the new voters, government is just another industry and economic sector worthy of care and watering.
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Washington Post reporter, Amy Gardner, sees a coming debacle, if not all-out disaster for Republicans. She looks at the bad publicity coming in now about the tea party candidates. Joe Miller (bad news). Ken Buck (screw-up). Rand Paul (imperious and cruel, etc.)
The tea party's volatile influence on this election year appears to be doing more harm than good for Republicans' chances in some of the closest races in the nation, in which little-known candidates who upset the establishment with primary wins are now stumbling in the campaign's final days.
In the same paper, Dan Balz reaches for the most accurate word to describe the mood "out there."
Anger is one word that is often used to describe the electorate this year. But one word alone cannot adequately capture the sentiments expressed by voters on doorsteps and street corners, at community centers or candidate rallies. Along with the anger there is fear, worry, nervousness, disappointment, anxiety and disillusionment.
The impact will be felt Tuesday. Republicans are poised to reap the benefits of the enormous dissatisfaction with the status quo. How deeply and how broadly remains for the voters to decide, but there is little doubt that the outcome will change the balance of power in Washington.
The winners should take little comfort from the results. Dissatisfaction with Republicans also runs deep, and voters have conflicted expectations about what should happen in Washington over the next two years. Politicians of both parties will remain on trial.
The now tired explanation that public anger is driving America's choices in the voting booth just doesn't cover it. Shock, disillusion, and the growing conviction that there's no going back -- we've burnt our bridges -- seems closer to the mark. But something else many have come to believe: you can't move forward until you face up to and account for what happened in the past.
