Two years ahead of the next presidential election, the public is divided over whether Barack Obama should run for a second term as president. About half (47%) say they would like to see Obama run again in 2012, while 42% say they would not. This is better than the outlook for Ronald Reagan in August 1982; at that point, just 36% of the public said they wanted to see Reagan – who subsequently went on to win his second term by an 18-point margin – run for reelection. ...
... As is the case with Obama, Reagan’s first two years in office were coupled with tough economic times and sliding approval ratings. Reagan’s approval ratings closely tracked economic indicators. According to Gallup polling, Reagan’s approval rating stood at 42% in August 1982 and bottomed out at 35% in the beginning of 1983. Opinions about Reagan’s political future at this time reflected this: In February 1983, as in August 1982, far more said that Reagan should not run for reelection (57%) than said he should (35%). ...Pew Research 10/25
And the results of another poll may explain why many think predictions of a Republican wave may be wrong: the country is evenly divided between those who think a Republican win would be better for the country and those who think a Democratic win would be better.
Among registered voters, about a third (32%) say it would be better for the country if Republicans win control of Congress; an identical percentage (32%) says it would be better if Democrats maintain control. Still, 30% say it would make no difference, according to latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted October 21-24 among 1,006 adults.
Those numbers change only slightly among likely voters: 38% say it would be better for the nation if the GOP wins control, 34% say it would be better of Democrats maintain their majorities and 23% say it would make no difference.
The "likely voters" count shows how important it is for those "unlikely" Democrats get off their tushies and vote.