For the past three election cycles, Congress has changed hands during the midterms, "a sequence that has never happened before in the country’s tumultuous political history," according to Matt Bai.
How come? In large part because "independent voters have tended to side with whichever party can legitimately claim not to be in charge at the moment, and ideology doesn’t have a whole lot to do with it."
If not ideology, then what? A group of researchers held a focus group discussion in New Jersey recently.
The dominant theme of the discussion, in which jobs and taxes came up only in passing, seemed to be the larger breakdown of civil society — the disappearance of common courtesy, the relentless stream of data from digital devices, the proliferation of lawsuits and the insidious influence of media on their children.
One woman described a food fight at the middle school that left a mess school employees were obliged to clean up, presumably because the children couldn’t be subjected to physical labor. A man complained about drivers who had grown increasingly hostile and inconsiderate on the roads, which drew nods of assent all around. Another described the Internet as just plain “bad.”
The economy was discussed mostly in connection with these other stresses. “We all think that if we had a lot of money,” one woman said, “everything would slow down and we could enjoy ourselves.”
These voters did not hate politicians. They simply saw both parties, along with the media and big business, as symptoms of the larger societal ailment. And this underlying perception, that politicians in Washington conduct themselves just as childishly and with the same lack of accountability as the kids throwing chicken casserole in the lunchroom, may well be the principal emotion behind the electorate’s propensity to vote out whoever holds power.
Bill Clinton figured it out and remained popular. George W. Bush didn't, his White House was an irresponsible mess, and he became very unpopular.
By the way, I think that focus group got it exactly right, don't you? Three cheers for the independence of some voters!
Where's Obama in all this? Are you listening, Mr. President, sir?
