Certainly redistricting is among the biggest worries Democrats have right now. It's not just that "as Ohio goes, so goes the nation."
Marc Ambinder looks at the Ohio-Obama connection.
In an election cycle where so many Democrats are running away from President Obama, Ohio's Democratic Governor Ted Strickland has unflinchingly embraced Obama from the beginning. And the White House and Democratic establishment have gone to the mat for Strickland.
But for Team Obama, this is not an act of altruism. They know Ohio, even though it may lose two electoral votes, will be crucial in 2012. They know their chances of carrying the state are drastically improved with a friendly governor. And they know how important Strickland can potentially be for them during redistricting. Democrats are looking at a horrible election night this Tuesday. But winning the gubernatorial race in Ohio would be a huge victory--and relief--for the White House. In fact, though Team Obama may not admit it, they probably care as much about this race, along with Florida's gubernatorial contest, as any this cycle.
But there's a problem for Republicans, too, and Strickland's opponent, John Kasich may pay the price.
Here's a wildcard. There has been a lot of buzz over the White House's broad allegations--without any specific accusations--that foreign money has financed many of the independent groups, such as Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie's American Crossroads, that have been putting up ads for Republicans and against Democrats across the nation. The media played referee and ridiculed the White House for bringing up these charges. But in Ohio, where workers are upset that blue collar jobs have been shipped overseas, where economic nationalism matters, such a charge may have an impact. It could turn just enough Republicans away from Kasich, and this could make all the difference for Strickland.
