Could it be that all this talk of the Democrats losing big in November is, well, talk? I keep getting that feeling. It's nice to know that Joshua Green has the same feeling and he writes about it in "Has the GOP Hit a Wall?" He found it less than easy to believe in a Republican sweep...
...mainly because a) the Democrats have accomplished a lot of what they promised to (health care, Wall Street reform, etc.) and b) I don't detect a compelling Republican alternative. Let me hasten to add: I don't pore over poll numbers in the manner of a Charlie Cook and therefore my viewpoint is entirely impressionistic; if I were putting money on the outcome, I'd bet on Charlie and not on me.
I'd go along with that. Charlie Cook is about the best, but... the Republicans don't have much to offer.
This shortcoming was on glaring display yesterday when two top Republicans, Pete Sessions and John Cornyn, appeared on "Meet the Press." As MSNBC's "First Read" team pointed out this morning:Over the course of several minutes, both Sessions and Cornyn were unable or unwilling to discuss what Republicans would specifically do on the deficit, etc., if they take back control of Congress. Sessions said that the GOP would: 1) ensure that the government live within its means, and 2) read the actual legislation. But when NBC's David Gregory demanded specifics and details of painful choices Republicans were willing to make, Sessions didn't offer a single one.
So what are the odds?
Anger at Democrats and the White House may well be strong enough that they're in for major losses regardless. But if Republicans can't find a way to answer Gregory's question, and soon--and I can't think what that answer would be--then I'd expect their gains to be on the lower end of the prognosticators' estimates. And that might not be enough to capture the House or the Senate.
Green and I must have been drinking the same coffee. Or something. I couldn't agree more. Of course, both of us are rational people and the Republicans these days are... well ...not. That's for sure. And along with the empty rhetoric they have the biggest megaphone. Their constituents seem to like a lot of noise and no content.
As for the megaphone, over at McClatchy I find a quote from John Zogby that makes me sit up. In an article on the Sherrod affair, Zogby assesses the media's influence.
John Zogby, a pollster, said the rapidly changing media ecosystem was a factor, as emotional charges such as racism grabbed people's attention when they were bombarded with information, true or false, from TV, radio, the Internet, in e-mails or in Tweets."
People pay special attention to the 'gotcha' moment," he said. "There's a feeling that we're ultra-sensitive to racism, so we've got to deal with this quickly because these things move so quickly these days."
Zogby and others said the media's haste didn't excuse bad management, however. "It's a reminder how we have to adjust to the media . . . and at the same time hold on to traditional virtues and ways of doing business," Zogby said.
Huh?
