Early in the crisis, BP and the federal government repeatedly said that the Deepwater Horizon well was spewing about 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) a day into the gulf. But the new estimates, released Thursday by government-appointed scientists, show that the well most likely produces 5,000 barrels before breakfast. ...WaPo
The new estimate is 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day. That range, still preliminary, is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day. ...NYT
Here's the hard truth. Yeah, it's way worse than Exxon Valdez. In
fact, it's been the equivalent of Exxon Valdez every ten days since
April 20. So that's about five times Exxon Valdez to date.
Did it get worse after BP's failed attempts to stem the flow? Sure. Probably. But that's almost irrelevant now.
NPR reported this morning that 40,000 barrels is closer to the mark. The Times adds:
The higher estimates will affect not only assessments of how much environmental damage the spill has done but also how much BP might eventually pay to clean up the mess — and it will most likely increase suspicion among skeptics about how honest and forthcoming the oil company has been throughout the catastrophe.
Incidentally, for anyone who missed it, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen's hourlong interview yesterday morning was a revelation. Among other things you can hear is the extent to which he's been working with the White House and his admiration for the president who has revealed an unusual and encompassing grasp of the situation.
How were the most recent estimates made?
On the new estimates of the flow rate, Marcia McNutt, director of the United States Geological Survey and chairwoman of the technical panel, said the new figures were based on a more detailed analysis of information like video of the gushing well. The new range was also based on the first direct measurement of the flow rate, using sonar equipment lowered to the ocean floor.
Two scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, made that measurement on May 31, Mr. Bowen said.
As with the government’s previous estimate, Dr. McNutt said subgroups of the panel applied various analytical techniques to come up with estimates. The best overlap among the techniques was the range of 25,000 to 30,000 barrels a day, she said, and that became the new official estimate.
Dr. McNutt added, however, that the range of estimates the technical panel considered plausible was actually wider, more like 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day.
