A group of experts -- oceanographers and other scientists -- are defying BP. BP would just as soon monopolize the information about the oil spill, covering up inconvenient truths. Four scientists and engineers describe their work-around.
It is our view that accurate, continuously updated measurements are not only possible, but absolutely essential if we are to respond effectively to this and future disasters. That is why we are conducting satellite image analysis and image-based fluid-flow analysis to provide an independent assessment of the oil spill.
In other words, they will provide the information a group of delinquent corporations is trying to keep under wraps -- apparently with the collusion of the federal government -- claiming that the extent of the oil release is limited to 5,000 barrels a day (bad enough!). This independent group is using a variety of sophisticated methods to establish the actual spill size and yield the information needed to deal more effectively with spills of this kind. The "protect the drillers" and "we don't want to know" policies are useless and probably criminal.
It is not surprising that seafloor release estimates are two to three times higher than what remote sensing of surface oil would indicate. Application of dispersants, dissolution into the water and evaporation into the air potentially remove significant fractions of the surface oil — although much of the oil could remain below the surface. And because the oil is escaping in jets at very high pressure, it is broken into tiny droplets, which aren’t likely to float to the surface and may form layers thousands of feet underwater.
At present, publicly known evidence for deep oil plumes consists of measured profiles of ocean color and oxygen concentration. The profiles show multiple, distinct layers 150 feet thick at depths from 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Hydrocarbon analysis that would confirm that oil caused these layers has not been released.
Taking all this into account, our preliminary estimates indicate that the discharge is at least 40,000 barrels per day and could be as much as 100,000 barrels. Certainly, our assessments suggest that BP’s stated worst-case estimate of 60,000 barrels has been occurring all along. What matters most is that we take the steps to find out if it has.
Starting now, BP and the government must begin using the best possible means to measure this spill, while preserving all records of events. On the ocean floor, we recommend acoustic velocimeters, high-rate video cameras and imaging sonar. For the underwater oil, sonobuoys could detect layers of oil, and undersea gliders could follow them autonomously. On the surface, military drone aircraft could find and track patches of oil headed for shore as well as conduct surveillance over this now gigantic spill. Like the methods we have used, these are all readily available solutions.
No surgeon in an operating room would neglect an unvarnished assessment of a bleeding patient. In this disaster, an accurate measurement of the oil spill is no less important.
Even before Obama was inaugurated, it was clear that science was to be removed from Bush's broom closet and given full membership in the new administration. Or was it so clear, after all?
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Obama, in his Saturday address, is announcing the creation of a "high-level commission" to investigate.
The president said in the address that he will appoint former Florida governor Bob Graham (D) and William K. Reilly (R), a former EPA administrator, to head the commission, a move that he said will ensure the panel gets to the bottom of the incident.
