There are polls showing Obama with a slight edge over McCain. There are polls showing him with a double-digit lead. Maybe this survey from the Pew Research folks yesterday explains why the 10-point lead for Obama may not be a fantasy.
Where the lead narrow is in the over-65 age group. The county where I live in Texas is both a prosperous farm and ranching community and a popular retirement home for well-to-do people from all over Texas and the US. Money is not short here, not for most. The employment rate is still relatively high. What I've noticed is that over-65's who have always lived here vote, almost to the last man and woman, Republican. The over-65's who have moved here are, by definition, more traveled. They also tend toward higher levels of education. Many of them are the hardest workers on the Obama campaign and the largest financial contributors. Some are "Army brats" -- and at one of those that I've talked with is "usually Republican" but an early voter for Obama. So "over-65" may be a more volatile and interesting category than it seems. Even so, Pew Research maintains:
"Only among voters age 65 and older has the percentage of voters identifying with the Democratic Party decreased slightly -- from 49% in 2004 to 47% now. This slight decline reflects the passing of members of the New Deal Generation -- who leaned overwhelmingly Democratic but who are mostly in their 90s now. In addition, voters who came of age politically in the Eisenhower administration, and are now in their late 60s, are closely divided in their party affiliation.
"The relative stability of partisanship in this age group reflects the fact that these voters have been politically active for the longest period of time and may have the firmest partisan affiliations."
