New York Times columnist Bob Herbert, an Obama supporter, has been moseying around Michigan asking people about the Democratic candidate.  There's some good news, some bad.  Most of all, Herbert once again takes a practical look at the candidate's real prospects. 

"After many years of watching black candidates run for public office, and paying especially close attention to this year’s Democratic primary race, I’ve developed my own (very arbitrary) rule of thumb regarding the polls in this election:

"Take at least two to three points off of Senator Obama’s poll numbers, and assume a substantial edge for Senator McCain in the breakdown of the undecided vote.

"Using that formula, Barack Obama is behind in the national election right now."

Herbert, who's the same color as Obama, sees that, for many Michiganders, something else is hanging out there like a dark cloud.

"The race issue can come up in peculiar and jolting ways. After hearing that some union voters had openly wondered about Senator Obama’s possible 'demise,' I asked Dan Hammersmith, president of Unite Here Local 748 in Grand Rapids, if workers were really talking about whether Mr. Obama could survive as president.

"'That is a concern that I’ve heard, yes,' he said. 'But I tell people, "Are we supposed to be afraid of that and not go ahead and try to do something different?"

"Over the weekend The Detroit Free Press ran a chart showing how people responded when asked if they agreed with the statement that 'there are people who want to hurt Barack Obama because of his race and sometimes I fear for his safety.'

"Fifty-seven percent agreed."