Excerpt from a discussion this morning on NPR's Diane Rehm show with Doyle McManus, LA Times; Katty Kay, BBC; and Roger Simon, Politico.
Diane Rehm: What happens on May 31st when the Democratic party Rules Committee hears challenges to the decision to take away Florida and Michigan's convention delegates?
Katty Kay: The truth is, we don't know yet what happens. There does seem to be an agreement on the Michigan delegates...
Diane Rehm: ...What kind of an agreement?
Katty Kay: The deal is to split them 69 for Hillary Clinton and 59 for Barack Obama.
Diane Rehm: Why?
Katty Kay: It gives her the majority, which she got in Michigan. But it also recognizes the fact this his name was not on the ballot. He picks up all of those people who voted "uncommitted." That mythical person out there that the opponents said you had to vote for! He picked up... I think it was 39% that voted uncommitted in Michigan?
Roger Simon: Yes.
Katty Kay: And so he's actually getting a little bit more than 39% in proportion of the delegates. It recognizes that he was not on the ballot but it also recognizes that she had a victory in Michigan. What we haven't got yet -- though we hear it's happening and there are discussions underway -- is what sort of resolution happens in Florida. The key about Florida is that Barack Obama really needs to reach out to Florida Democrats. He needs to show that he 's willing and that he's going to try to have them seated at the convention. Because he has a problem with many of the constituents in Florida. He has a problem with Jewish voters. He has a problem with Latino voters. He didn't campaign in Florida. He didn't win the election down there. I think he now feels he's in the position -- because he's looking likely to be the nominee -- that in victory he can be magnanimous.
Roger Simon: I would not be too optimistic about the Rules and By-Laws Committee actually accepting any of these compromises. What we're talking about is a group of four prominent Democratic National Committee members in Michigan working out a compromise which they say is workable. The problem is: the Rules and By-Laws Committee is the group that punished these states in the first place. The states have done nothing to solve the problem for which they've been punished. Both states are absolutely unrepentant about what they did. In fact, the Michigan delegation is sort of in-your-face about it. They keep sending these insulting notes to the Democratic National Committee -- the Rules Committee -- saying, "You didn't punish New Hampshire! How can you punish us? Here's our compromise and you take that." Well, there's really no rationale to accept any of these compromises. The fact is, Florida and Michigan went too early, were stripped of their delegates, and now they're saying, "Seat us anyway!" If the Rules and By-Laws Committee goes along with this -- and they might -- how will they maintain any kind of order in 2012?
Katty Kay: Except that Howard Dean has said publicly that he wants those delegates seated at the convention. And the only way to do that is to come up with some sort of compromise which does go against the rules and which Florida and Michigan signed onto and then broke. Everybody accepts that. But for political expedience, it might be worth circumventing the rules. And the question is going to be, does Howard Dean have the clout over the Rules and By-Laws Committee to force them to accept that.
Doyle McManus: As Katty said earlier, Barack Obama -- who by then, we think, will be the presumptive nominee -- has a powerful incentive to do something nice for Florida. My guess would be a bit of Kabuki in which the Committee punishes and Barack Obama intervenes to "commute the sentence."
Roger Simon: "At the convention," though, does not necessarily mean May 31st at the Rules and By-Laws Committee meeting. Everyone recognized that these delegations would eventually be seated because we all expected to have an early victor and it wouldn't make any difference. Seating them in such a way as to give one candidate the advantage -- Hillary Clinton is hopeful they'd be seated in such a way as to give her the advantage -- is probably something much more controversial. There are two problems. Not only the problem we talked about but that both contests, beyond being banned, were flawed. As has been endlessly repeated, nobody campaigned in Florida, there was only one major name on the ballot in Michigan. How, then, do you look at those results and say, "Yes, let's take these results"?
Diane Rehm: So what would happen at the convention if neither delegation were seated?
Doyle McManus: Both of those states... Democrats in both of those states would be very cheesed off. We'd spend a lot of the convention talking about that instead of talking about what the Obama campaign would like us to talk about.
Diane Rehm: But wouldn't it risk alienating those voters with the 44 of 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House?
Doyle McManus: That's right. That's why those delegates will be there. They may be there with 50% of their votes counted or 66%. But they'll be there.
