Prairie Weather

Change. Now. Please!

One commenter at the Washington Post's live blog says it all:

I've been a Hillary supporter, but after watching much of this hearing, I must say that the Hillary supporters on the DNC rules committee are a nasty bunch. I'm thinking Obama's ideas for "change" might be just what we need.

Also at "The Fix," Chris Cillizza writes:

Remember that no matter what happens today or tonight ... will not change the fact that Obama has a clear pledged delegate lead over Clinton. The debate is largely a symbolic one. If the Rules and Bylaws Committee recognizes Florida and Michigan in one form or another, it will give Clinton some level of standing to insist that she is the popular vote leader and to continue on in the contest.

It does look as though Florida will get limited recognition.  Two bits Michigan gets the same kind of deal.  So, "in one form or another," expect Hillary to continue to press her case, Cillizza cautions.

Another conspiracy to destroy the Clintons

President Nixon, in yet another act demonstrating how deserved his unpopularity was, developed an "enemies list" within the White House.  Looks like former president Clinton is doing the same thing.  Whereas Nixon was both childish and somewhat paranoid, Clinton is mostly childish.  So far, anyway.

With Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign on the verge of defeat, Bill Clinton has been placing blame on enemies including a brazenly biased media that tried to suppress blue-collar votes, a powerful anti-war group that endorsed rival Barack Obama and weak-willed party leaders unable to stand up to either of these nefarious forces. ...

... After rattling off a series of poll numbers showing Hillary Clinton faring better than Obama against McCain, Bill Clinton told donors: “We are in the strongest conceivable position electorally and not in a good fix with the superdelegates, because they have felt all the pressure from the Obama side, from the media, from the MoveOn crowd — who they think is an automatic ATM machine for everybody for life. So, they’re reluctant to take on all that.”

While the campaign has been blasting the media for weeks for prematurely calling the race for Obama, President Clinton has added a new entry to his enemy list: MoveOn.org, the anti-war group that endorsed Obama and that, through its political action committee, has raised millions for Democratic candidates, money the Clintons apparently believe has unfairly purchased superdelegate support for Obama.

Makes MoveOn sound like some powerful, back-room cartel (maybe a little like some back-room DLC members).  Actually MoveOn has a huge, diverse membership -- as representative of a wide group of voters as any union or other coalition.  We wouldn't have heard a whimper from Bill Clinton if MoveOn had endorsed Hillary Clinton, would we.

Nuff said

 Florida State Sen. Arthenia Joyner, speaking on behalf of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), made an emotional appeal to the Rules and Bylaws Committee to seat the Sunshine State's delegates.

It looks like a battle between emotion and reason.  The Obama folks are willing to be reasonable and even generous.

Florida Rep. Robert Wexler empathized with the plight of his home state but insisted that the Jan. 29 vote was not a "normal" primary and cannot be treated as one.
 
"Our state acted outside of the rules of this committee," said Wexler, the designate of Sen. Barack Obama's (Ill.) campaign. "We cannot reverse the fact that this election was held months ago without a compliant delegate selection plan."
 
Wexler insisted time and again that his candidate had followed the guidelines laid out by the Rules and Bylaws Committee and that punishing the Illinois senator for doing so made little sense.
 
"The Obama campaign respected this rule's committee policy," Wexler said to huge applause from those in the room.
 
Wexler voiced his support for the petition laid out by Jon Ausman earlier in the day, which would seat all of the state's superdelegates and half of the 185 pledged delegates despite the fact that it would give Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton a delegate pickup.

"Senator Obama offers this concession in order to prove reconciliation," said Wexler.

Chris Cillizza is live-blogging from the Rules Committee meeting.  He writes that to get into the meeting, he had to navigate "a sea of demonstrators chanting 'count every vote' with signs that blared that same message. The crowd, while boisterous was not huge, as they gathered outside the Marriott Wardman Park hotel in northwest Washington."

How to buy a fuel efficient car

Because depreciation is the biggest cost of owning a car, people who trade in gas guzzlers for a more fuel-efficient vehicle could wind up losing more than they save at the pump, according to a new study by Consumer Reports. This is especially true if they financed the first car and trade it within three years for a new car.

The San Francisco Chronicle comes up with some recommendations for those who are hankering for a gas sipper, taking depreciation into account  -- and what you lose by selling your guzzler.  If you're looking for a used fuel-efficient vehicle, you'll find that the prices of the most popular ones have been steadily increasing.  No surprise.  So:

If you're buying a car for environmental reasons, it makes sense to buy the highest-mileage vehicle that fits your budget and needs. ...

... If you're looking for a good trade-off between fuel economy and overall cost to own, here's what three automotive experts suggest.

Jack Nerad, executive market analyst with Kelly Blue Book, recommends "a high-mileage conventional vehicle," such as the Honda Civic.

Alternatively, "a 2- or 3-year-old Hyundai is a pretty high-quality vehicle, but because it doesn't have as good resale value, it might be a better deal than a Civic," he adds.

"Taking a contrarian view, if you need a full-size SUV because you tow a horse trailer or have seven kids, this might be a great time to buy one. There are a lot of incentives, and you might find the money you save more than makes up for any fuel cost," Nerad says.

"The best full-size SUVs are the Chevy Tahoe and GMC Yukon, which have intelligent fuel management systems that let you operate on four or eight cylinders," depending on need. "If you look at the number of passengers you can carry, the fuel economy per person transported is pretty darn good. They only become an issue" when there's a single occupant.

Philip Reed, senior consumer advice editor for Edmunds.com, says gas-electric hybrids get superior gas mileage but cost more than their non-hybrid counterparts.

As gasoline prices rise, the time it takes to recoup the price premium is shortening for some models, Reed says. "It's down to 1.6 years for the Toyota Camry hybrid," Reed says. For other hybrid models, see links.sfgate.com/ZDNO.

"So much attention is paid to hybrids that people overlook other ways to get good fuel economy," Reed adds. "You can get a fairly large family sedan with a four-cylinder engine, such as the Honda Accord. If you drive it right, you might get 30 miles per gallon."

The newly redesigned Chevy Malibu "is a very fuel-efficient vehicle, even with six cylinders," he adds.

Reed predicts the new Smart Car "will be a hit initially. It's so cute." It gets good gas mileage and seats two comfortably. But he says some Americans will dislike the balky, European-style transmission.

Bartlett says, "The best way to improve fuel economy is to buy just the size you need, not a size bigger."  Among hybrids, "the slam dunk now is the Toyota Prius."

Among regular sedans, the Nissan Altima with a 2.5-liter, four-cylinder engine is "a fantastic option. It's a top-rated car by Consumer Reports and also has among the highest fuel economy in its class. It's really entertaining to drive."

For large families, he recommends minivans, such as the Honda Odyssey or Toyota Sienna, over SUVs. Both get about 19 miles per gallon.

"One interesting alternative that deserves attention is the Mazda 5. It's a cross between a station wagon and a minivan," he says. It seats six in three rows and in Consumer Reports tests got about 23 miles per gallon.

What do Obama's losses among white women mean?

Ruy Teixeira has a pretty solid record as a political analyst.  So while Politico comes out with a gloomy reading of Barack Obama's score with white women, Teixeira has already given his comforting assessment of what Obama can reasonably expect from white working class voters.

First Politico and the Pew Survey assess the changes over the past several months:

Democratic white women’s negative view of Obama increased from 21 percent to 35 percent, while their positive view decreased from 72 percent to 60 percent — roughly the same rate as white women overall.

White men, in general and among Democrats, have shown only a slight drop-off in their perception of Obama — one-third of the shift seen in white women. About 20 percent of Democratic white men have an unfavorable view of Obama, a figure which has remained stable since February.

Pew also found that among self-described Clinton supporters, the negative shift against Obama is more severe among women than among men.

Compare with Ruy Teixeira in an interview the other day with the New York Times' John Harwood. Teixeira takes a longer view -- and he takes issue with Hillary Clinton's smug claim that she has the support of "“hard-working Americans, white Americans."

He dismisses intraparty contests as “pretty poor evidence” of whether Mr. Obama, as the Democratic nominee, could attract the blue-collar support he would need against Senator John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee.

And how much blue-collar support would Mr. Obama need? Not a majority, said Mr. Teixeira. Though blue-collar Democrats once represented a centerpiece of the New Deal coalition, they have shrunk as a proportion of the information age-economy and as a proportion of the Democratic base.

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

In recent national polls, that is exactly what Mr. Obama is doing. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Mr. Obama trailing by 12 percentage points with working-class whites; a poll by Quinnipiac University, showed him trailing by seven points. In each survey, Mr. Obama led over all by seven points.

Meanwhile, others, who have been cataloging the swift decline of movement conservatives, believe the Democrats can -- and likely will -- win back blue-collar Americans.

Comprehensive survey suggests Obama has plenty to worry about

The latest Pew survey shows that Obama's road to the presidency isn't exactly smooth.  He's lost a little here, gained some there, but overall his favorability ratings have slipped 8% and some independents, formerly for Obama, are moving to McCain.

He currently holds a wide 54% to 41% lead over Hillary Clinton. But when the Illinois Democrat is tested against John McCain in a general election matchup, he now runs about even against the presumptive Republican nominee. Previously, Obama had led McCain by modest margins ...

Some of this has to do with the ferocity of feelings among Clinton supporters.  The numbers willing to support Obama as nominee have slipped, particularly among white women.

Obama's slipping image is in some measure a negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. Currently, just 46% of those who support Clinton for the nomination say the party will unite behind Obama if he is the nominee. In March, 58% of Clinton supporters said the party would rally behind Obama if he is the nominee.

On the other hand, McCain's negatives are up.  Details here.

Meanwhile, Obama is about to declare victory, at least with respect to the primaries. There's some behind-the-scenes wheeling and dealing (and some outrageous claims) during the final 48 before the Rules Committee meets. 

But Obama is going ahead and preparing his victory speech.

Barack Obama is preparing to claim victory in the Democratic presidential nominating contest after next Tuesday's final primaries in Montana and South Dakota.

In a question and answer session Wednesday night with reporters on his campaign plane between Denver and Chicago, the Illinois senator dismissed the idea that rival Hillary Clinton's stated willingness to take her fight for the nomination to the party convention in late August would matter.

"When Dukakis won the nomination, you know, Jesse (Jackson) was still running until the convention," Obama said. "When Bill Clinton was running, Jerry Brown was still technically in it. As far as I can tell, this is fairly standard fare."

Obama said the nominee would be clear "after Tuesday." "I am sure we will have discussions with Senator Clinton and her team," he said.

He predicted that after the last primaries, "whatever remaining super delegates will make their decisions pretty quickly after that."

"If we've got the number of delegates to secure the nomination," Obama said, "then I'm the nominee."

"It is technically not over until we have the number of delegates that are needed to secure the nomination. Once we have that number, then we'll focus on the general election," he said.

As of Thursday morning, the Obama campaign estimated that it was 45 delegates shy of the 2,026 delegates needed to secure the nomination.