Prairie Weather

Steady stream of endorsements now

[North Carolina] Rep. G.K. Butterfield tells local paper Obama has been in discussions with state’s six other Democrats, saying “More than one is seriously considering making a public release this week in support of Senator Obama — more than one but less than six."

Comments come after Wall Street Journal says all seven of North Carolina’s Democratic House members plan to back the Land of Lincolner as a group before state’s May 6 contest.

Paper says it’s part of a slow but steady string of Democrats taking Obama’s side, trying to raise pressure on Clinton to bow out. ... The Page ...

New York Times reporting and truth: opposites do not always attract.

Have you had a chance to read the letter Jeremiah Wright wrote to the New York Times reporter?

And more here.

Clinton sustaining damage on two fronts

Politico has yet another, pretty damaging report about the Clinton campaign's debt.  Apparently it extends to health insurance.  The campaign says the insurance premiums have been paid, but...

Among the debts reported this month by Hillary Rodham Clinton’s struggling presidential campaign, the $292,000 in unpaid health insurance premiums for her campaign staff stands out.

Clinton, who is being pressured to end her campaign against Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination, has made her plan for universal health care a centerpiece of her agenda.

The campaign provides health insurance to all its employees, their spouses, partners and children — and that wasn’t interrupted by any lag in payments to insurance providers, said Jay Carson, a Clinton campaign spokesman.

He said the campaign this month paid off all outstanding bills to Aetna Healthcare and CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield. Those payments will be reflected on a report the campaign will file this month with the Federal Election Commission, which Carson said will show “zero debt owed to both vendors.”

Politico reporters found that the situation wasn't quite that sunny.  " During the first two months of the year, the campaign did not pay down any of that debt."  Instead, it went deeper into debt.

Meanwhile, Democratic party leadership is pressing for an ending to the campaign by June.  They may well opt for the Bredesen solution, or something very much like it.  In this scenario, the superdelegates would come together early in a "virtual convention" to make a decision about their support.  It looks as though the "convention" is already underway.

The idea sounds exotic, but recent public declarations and Politico interviews with top Democratic officials have made clear that something like what Bredesen proposed is already underway — not with a big meeting but with an intensifying series of exchanges among party elites.

The early voting in this virtual convention is bad news for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Her hope that Democratic leaders will settle the nomination is starting to come true — with Barack Obama so far emerging as the beneficiary.

After a 10-day slog of self-inflicted wounds and fatalistic headlines for Clinton, these party elders are clearly tilting against her hopes for keeping the nomination contest open indefinitely.

The Democrats’ virtual convention is taking place publicly, with statements like the remarkable comment by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) that Clinton should get out now, and semi-publicly, with background comments made by top operatives to the media.

It is taking place also in private entreaties by e-mail or phone — the modern equivalent of smoke-filed rooms — as advocates for Obama urge an early end to the race and Clinton backers plead for time and warn about his general election vulnerabilities.

It isn't as though Clinton has no idea all this is going on.   Many probably wonder why she is clinging to the campaign.  Well, here's a possibility.  She's holding out for a promise.

This gathering momentum has forced the Clintons into Hail Mary arguments, causing even some confidants to wonder about their logic or real aims. Bill Clinton recently pointed out that she was ahead in the popular vote in primaries, as opposed to caucuses — essentially saying she’s ahead in contests she has won.

“They’re trying everything, and nothing is sticking,” said a Clinton family adviser. “It is possible she’s trying to leverage all this into a spot on the ticket.”

Ugly thought, frankly.  Would you trust her?

"Is the rules the rules?"

Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak thinks he has the answer to the Michigan delegates problem.  He presented his solution to Howard Dean this morning.

Under Stupak's plan, 83 delegates would be awarded by following -- loosely -- the results of the state's primary. (Hillary Clinton won the primary, which was held in January. But she ran all but unopposed, as several candidates, including Barack Obama, were not on the ballot; instead, her main opponent was "uncommitted.") Using this system, Clinton would receive 47 pledged delegates while Obama would receive 36.

After that, an additional 73 delegates -- which would include superdelegates as well as those delegates to be chosen at a state party meeting later this spring -- would be allocated based on each candidates' share of the national popular vote once all nominating contests have finished in June.

It looks fair, doesn't it?  In fact, it looks like a good compromise. Trouble is, many of us have an objection on principle to watching the Democratic party make a rule and then break it.  It was a rule which Michigan knew about but broke, a rule which one of the candidates also decided to ignore.  Neither the candidate nor the voters have a "right" to have their vote counted.  The Democratic party is in a mess.  Last thing anyone should want is to break a rule which could come back to haunt the party in 2012 when another bunch of states might decide to break the rules and demand equity using the same rationale and precedent. "Rules is rules!" is what many commenters on this Salon article are writing.  They're right.

Well, somewhat better than getting an obscene phone call from Pat Robertson, probably ...

To Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton, Richard Mellon Scaife qualifies as a charter member of the “vast right-wing conspiracy,” having bankrolled an elaborate multimillion-dollar campaign throughout the 1990s to unearth damaging information about the couple.

But in a striking about-face, Mr. Scaife now says he has changed his mind — at least about one half of the duo.“I have a very different impression of Hillary Clinton today,” he wrote in an opinion article published Sunday, amid her campaign for president. “And it’s a very favorable one indeed.”

How to predict which superdelegates will go for Obama

Minnesota Senator and superdelegate, Amy Klobuchar, declared for Obama last night. 

Politico's Avi Zenilman takes a look at the rest, which way they're leaning, and who they are.  He divides them into six groups:  Crypto Obamans, Throwbacks, Parochials, Nail Biters, Strong and Silents, and Unknowns.

A sampling:

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi [Crypto-Obaman]: Though she has been careful not to endorse either candidate, Pelosi is widely believed to be a secret admirer of Obama. Tea leaf readers point to her call for the superdelegates to follow the pledged delegate leader — almost certain to be Obama. Her recent contretemps with Clinton donors has only hardened the perception that her affinity is for the Illinois senator.

House Majority Whip James Clyburn [Throwback]: “I think that the historical significance of so-called superdelegates — these are unpledged delegates — is very, very important for us to maintain,” the House whip told NPR in February. “We are in place in order to either extend the wishes of the voters or to try to make corrections if they need to be made.”

North Carolina DNC Committeeman David Parker [Parochial]: Parker told The News & Observer that one important factor in his decision will be the extent to which each candidate helps with down-ballot races in his state.

Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney [Nail Biter]: George W. Bush carried his district twice, so Mahoney needs to be far more circumspect than the typical superdelegate. In fact, the freshman Democrat told a local newspaper, “I have better things to do in my district” than go out to Denver for the party convention.

Former Vice President Al Gore [Strong and Silent]: Many believe he’s a crypto-Obaman, especially now that he is openly talking about how the race will resolve itself soon. But as a Democratic solon diminished by his endorsement of Howard Dean in the 2004 race, he’s in no hurry.

Then there's the interesting category of  "unknowns" that we tend to forget about, even though there's quite a bunch of 'em.  Who are they?

These are the superdelegates who aren’t yet superdelegates. This group includes individuals who will fill vacancies in Congress before the convention takes place, and the remaining add-on delegates who will be selected by state party committees and conventions over the next few months. The exact number is unknown, but it will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 superdelegates.

So these superdelegates aren’t exactly undecided. Rather, it’s undecided who they are.

Bottom line:  we turn to Donald Rumsfeld for advice.

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.

In short:

I would not say that the future is necessarily less predictable than the past.  I think the past was not predictable when it started.

Om.