Democrats who fear that the presidential nominating race will run all the way to convention in Denver in August are dusting down rulebooks to find out exactly what they face.
The London Times has come up with the clearest and most succinct primer seen so far on the internal politics of the Democratic party -- and its current dilemma. Why the scramble to break the Obama-Clinton "tie"?
A split convention makes magnificent political theatre, but it can be ruinous for the party.The last candidate to emerge from a brokered convention to win the presidency was the Republican Warren G. Harding in 1920.
It all comes down to the "super delegates."
... 2008 could result in a “divided convention” where one candidate has more delegates than the other but not enough to win outright without the support of the so-called super-delegates. This is why both campaigns are already turning attention to these 796 national party officials, members of Congress, Governors, and former presidents and Capitol Hill leaders.
Super-delegates are not bound by the results of primaries or caucuses — and can change their minds until the last minute. Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama are lobbying them furiously, making telephone calls and sending e-mails to try to gain their support.
The number promising support to each is disputed. Media organisations routinely call super-delegates who have not publicly endorsed a candidate in an effort to learn where they stand. CNN estimates that Mrs Clinton has 193 to Mr Obama’s 106.
Behind the scenes -- what the Times (thankfully) doesn't mention -- is the personal animus which is driving the Clinton candidacy. Apparently Mark Penn, Clinton strategist-in-chief, an advisor even more unattractive than Karl Rove, is claiming a Super Tuesday win -- a win over Ted Kennedy. You can take it as read that Bill Clinton had a hand in that.
