The most reliable (and least partisan) foreign policy experts who have spoken publicly about the situation in Pakistan seem to agree about one particular Bush administration mistake: Pakistan has been and is far more important and dangerous than Afghanistan or -- god knows -- Iraq.
In today's Thomas Ricks report in the Washington Post, it appears that Bush is still hiding out in north central Texas. His advisors are still speaking in terms of Afghanistan, still looking at Pakistan as though they were standing in Kabul. The chorus they sing is always -- always -- about Al Qaeda. It would not be convenient politically to talk about other possible causes of Bhutto's death or the growing hatred of America among Pakistanis.
U.S. military officers and other defense experts do not anticipate an immediate impact on U.S. operations in Afghanistan. But they are concerned that continued instability eventually will spill over and intensify the fighting in Afghanistan, which has spiked in recent months as the Taliban has strengthened and expanded its operations.
Recent events in Pakistan, some of them influenced by the Bush administration at the very least, will indeed have an important fall-out in Afghanistan.
Unrest in Pakistan and increasing fuel prices have already boosted the cost of food in Afghanistan, making it more likely that hungry Afghans will be lured by payments from the Taliban to participate in attacks, a U.S. Army officer in Afghanistan said.
It appears that Bush is in contact with his foreign policy advisors, notably by videoconference in Crawford. Supporters and friends of US-educated Benazir Bhutto are probably wondering why the hell he can't haul butt to Washington if only as a sign of respect for the seriousness of the situation. Condoleezza Rice managed to go all the way out Connecticut Ave. to the Embassy of Pakistan to sign the condolence book. In Karachi and beyond, "the U.S. Embassy in Pakistan warned U.S. citizens Thursday to keep a low profile and avoid public gatherings. A Pentagon official said plans to evacuate Americans from the country are being reviewed."
Meanwhile, against all doubts and suspicion, the administration is clinging to the conviction that Al Qaeda was responsible for Bhutto's death. Elsewhere in the nation, snow storms are shutting everything down. In Crawford, the skies are deep blue and untroubled by clouds. The crisp cold makes for some photogenic brush-cutting.
