Joost Hiltermann is one Middle East analyst we could use a lot more input from. He has given us seriously good backgrounders as well as reports on what's actually happened over the past several years. His latest assessment of the "surge" is worth taking to the bank.
“We are in a holding pattern,” said Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research organization. “The military solution has gained enough peace to last through the U.S. election, but we have a situation that is extremely fragile. None of the violent actors have either been defeated or prevailed, and the political roots of the conflict have not been addressed, much less resolved.”
"Enough peace to last through the US election." That leaves us (no surprise) with an enormous bill to be paid even as George W. Bush settles into Crawford and plays with his new library at SMU. A lot of angry liberals are choosing their presidential candidate based on whether s/he will call for the prosecution of Bush/Cheney. Their anger is not misplaced.