The situation today, from the New York Times:
A Turkish advance into northern Iraq would instantly bring fresh troubles to a country where the United States is preoccupied with the war. And it would complicate stability in the broader region, which is generally antagonistic to American policy. Iran made remarks criticizing American policy on Sunday. Syria did the same four days before.
Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, convened an emergency security meeting with Turkey’s top officials on Sunday night, in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, to discuss an appropriate response. Ms. Rice called him shortly before the meeting began, Mr. Erdogan said on national television.
“She expressed their seriousness in this matter by not only saying that they assessed the issue in a highly sensitive way,” Mr. Erdogan said of his conversation with Ms. Rice, “but also, beyond emphasizing our righteousness, she said, ‘allow us a few days.’”
NPR's Ivan Watson reporter last night from Istanbul that pressure to take military action in Turkey is growing.
“Turkey’s prime minister emerged from the talks, spoke live on Turkish TV, and he called for calm and for common sense. He said there was no room for emotion in the fight against terrorism. He pointed out that Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state and asked for ‘a few more days before taking action.’” He also said that he was prepared to launch cross-border military attacks despite previous objections from the US and the Iraqi government. He said Turkey was already paying the price for this conflict and he was ready to pay any additional cost Turkey may incur by launching a cross-border attack that would be condemned by the international community… We’re already seeing protests around the country. People are waving Turkish flags denouncing the PKK. … We’ve also had reports of vandalism on Kurdish political party offices. And in fact Prime Minister Erdogan has urged Turks not to attack people that he says had no involvement in this PKK battle.”
Violence, of course, broke out again yesterday morning in Baghdad as the US military carried out a deadly raid on Sadr City.
An audacious cross-border ambush by Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq killed at least 17 Turkish soldiers Sunday, ratcheting up pressure on the Turkish government to launch a military offensive into Iraq.
The pre-dawn attack took place as the U.S. military said its troops killed 49 fighters in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood, one of the highest death tolls for a military operation since President Bush declared an end to active combat in 2003.
But Iraqi officials and residents of the vast Shiite enclave, loyal to powerful anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, said 13 people were killed and all of the victims were innocent civilians, including children. They warned that the attack could lead Sadr to rescind a suspension of his militia's operations.
The unrelated spasms of violence on two fronts illustrated the highly combustible geopolitical and domestic challenges confounding the U.S. military, even as a temporary troop increase has succeeded in tamping down some of the violence in Iraq.
Bulent Ali Riza of the Center for Strategic and International Studies analyzed the complexity of the diplomatic problems for the US as of late yesterday, on NPR.
“The Turks have long been bothered by threat of PKK terrorism emanating from northern Iraq. The US has great leverage over the Iraqi Kurds who have their own regional government in northern Iraq. The Turks have very much wanted either the US or the Iraqi Kurds or the weak central government in Baghdad to do something about this. With the escalation of PKK terrorism, they’re looking to the US as a final resort before they have to act unilaterally themselves. …It’s a very difficult situation for the US government. Clearly the US has not found the magic formula to try and satisfy both sides. About a year ago, when the Turks were threatening to intervene, President Bush called Prime Minister Erdogan and said, ‘Don’t do that! What we’re going to do is appoint a special envoy, retired General Joseph Ralston, who’ll be reporting to the Secretary of State here in Washington, and he’ll be meeting with a counterpart to be appointed by you. This will be our way of coming up with practical solutions to deal with the PKK issue.’ Well, that broke down a few months ago with first the Turkish representatives resigning and then General Ralston also resigning. So the channel for maximization of US diplomatic leverage is no longer there. With this increase in violence, the situation is moving towards a nightmare scenario for the US. Not only are the Turks unhappy with the activities of terrorist groups based in northern Iraq, but so are the Iranians. The Iranians have been shelling northern Iraq because of a group which has been attacking Iran. So the US officials have been counseling restraint to the Turks, saying, ‘Please don’t do this because the Iranians may look at it as a precedent.’ I think the time for diplomacy is almost over. The US really has to do something to satisfy the Turks. There are pressures building up on the Turkish side for Turkish troops to be sent in to northern Iraq in accordance with a resolution which was passed a few days ago permitting the deployment of forces abroad. … Two issues [the proposed incursion into northern Iraq and the Armenian genocide resolution in the US Congress] which are not related to each other in any way, have served to make US-Turkish diplomacy that much more difficult. The resolution permitting deployment of forces in northern Iraq wouldn’t have been passed if it hadn’t been for the heightened sense of tension on the part of the Turks following the passage of the resolution. Even if the resolution is not passed, the damage has been done and the ability of the US to influence the Turks has been reduced…”
