The assertions of irritable "experts" on talks shows are now not only demonstrably untrue but offensive. Michael O'Hanlon and Anthony Cordesman were both offensive in that sense yesterday during an interview. O'Hanlon, who's been taken to task by Glenn Greenwald (among others), seems to resent any hard facts which shatter his determination to put a good face on Bush's Iraq policies. Cordesman's own "strategic patience" seems to be wearing thin. In both cases there was more sympathy implied for a strained White House, Pentagon, and Petraeus, than for Iraqis.
The McClatchy report this morning, after a particularly (but not unusually) violent 24 hours, has to be a stab to the heart of determined optimists.
...While top U.S. officials insist that 50 percent of the capital is now under effective U.S. or government control, compared with 8 percent in February, statistics indicate that the improvement in violence is at best mixed.
U.S. officials say the number of civilian casualties in the Iraqi capital is down 50 percent. But U.S. officials declined to provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don't support the claim.
The number of car bombings in July actually was 5 percent higher than the number recorded last December, according to the McClatchy statistics, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same.
"Political conciliation," as Cordesman calls it?
The most touted success of the campaign — an alliance between U.S. forces and some Sunni insurgent groups against al Qaida in Iraq — has angered many in the Maliki government, who accuse the United States of supporting groups that could ultimately turn against the government.
Former Sunni insurgents and tribal leaders will expect some kind of payoff for having turned on al Qaida, said Lt. Col. Richard Welch, who works primarily with Sunni tribal leaders and has negotiated with insurgents. Maliki’s government, however, has been hesitant to grant concessions, he said.
Any decline in violence since the surge began? Although there are one or two bright spots in one or two neighborhoods ? "Some military officers believe that it may be an indication that ethnic cleansing has been completed in many neighborhoods and that there aren’t as many people to kill," the McClatchy correspondent reports, though "no pattern of improvement is discernible for violence during the five months of the surge."
Unfortunately, as Juan Cole points out, "You will hear the Pentagon claim about less violence (!) repeated ad nauseam on all the cable television news channels and in the major print media. You won't hear anyone say that McClatchy's figures dispute the claim."
