Well, that's not quite what the General Odiorne says, but close enough.
The day-to-day commander of American forces in Iraq has recommended that the heightened American troop levels there be maintained through February 2008, military officials said Wednesday. The White House has never said exactly how long it intends the troop buildup to last, but military officials say the increased American force level will begin declining in August unless additional units are sent or more units are held over.
"Unless additional units..." etc. etc.
Decisions need to be made soon, Army officials say, to identify potential replacement units or extensions. To meet troop requirements, the Army would need to look seriously at mobilizing additional National Guard units later this year.
Or we could insist on a draft.
The National Intelligence Estimate predicted "that the Iraqi Security Forces would not be able to assume the major responsibility for securing Baghdad in the near future. An unclassified version of the report noted that 'the Iraqi Security Forces, particularly the Iraqi police, will be hard pressed in the next 12 to 18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to operate independently against Shia militias with success.'”
So. The administration has known for some time that Iraq wouldn't be able to pull its weight for 18 months?
Given the time needed to adjust training schedules and prepare units, decisions may need to be made before there is clear evidence about whether the new strategy is working. “If he defers some decisions he potentially will foreclose deployment options downstream because people won’t begin to move,” said a Pentagon official, referring to Secretary Gates. “By deferring a decision he will in effect be making a decision.”
