The Republican strategy to eliminate Democratic influence
Peter Wallsten and Tom Hamburger were interviewed yesterday morning on the Diane Rehm show about their new book, "One Party Country: The Republican Plan for Dominance in the 21st Century." Here are some excerpts:
Tom Hamburger: In our book we trace the efforts by the Republican Party and conservative leaders and the business community to rebuild from the ashes of the Barry Goldwater campaign in 1964 a conservative movement that would not only undo the extraordinary advantages that the Democratic Party had in the 1960's when the Party was so dominant in all three branches of government, but one day would actually control all three branches of government. It was a remarkable dream in 1964 and we think it's been realized now in the 21st century.
Rehm: So it was a vision 50 years ago and now it has come into reality.
Peter Wallsten: Yes, and in fact, as we point out in "One Party Country," this has really be accelerated under the current administration of President George W. Bush, largely under the guidance of his political strategist, Karl Rove, and others such as Ken Mehlman, the Republican National Committee chairman. They learned a lot of lessons from watching Democrats over the years, including in 2000 where Democrats did a remarkable job of getting voters to the polls. But what the Republicans and what the Bush-Rove-Mehlman machine realized after 2000 was that Republicans needed to do a better job. So they went back and studied what happened in the battleground states around the country, and they started looking at ways to harness new technology to really surpass the Democrats, which is what they have done. A big part of our book is looking at what has become knownas "the voter vault" -- a massive database of not only voter names, party registration, and where they stand on key issues, but massive amounts of marketing data that have helped the Republicans find new voters. Previously unaffiliated voters and voters who have traditionally voted Democratic.
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Wallsten: What they've done is they've amassed, over the past 6 years, marketing data from retailers, from automotive dealerships. They know what kind of car you drive. They might know what kind of toothpaste you purchase. They know what your favorite alcoholic beverage is. They've managed to come up with a system in which they use all of this marketing data to decide if somebody is more likely to be a conservative-minded person. Maybe they've voted Democratic in the past. But perhaps they would be open to very targetted appeals. Perhaps they're into fitness and they go to a certain gym.. It's a way to reach voters. One woman that Tom found in Ohio, suburban Ohio... She's an African-American woman who had voted Democratic for many, many years. She was identified by the Republican Party because she lived in a golfing community, she sent her children to a private school, and they realized there were certain issues that Republicans could bring to her. So she lives in suburban Ohio and she actually voted for Kerry in 2004. But she was besieged with appeals from the Republican Party and now tells us that she's open to voting Republican in the future. In long-term vision, that's a victory.
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Hamburger: I'll just jump back and explain how effective niche-marketing is in the case of Felicia Hill, the woman that we met in Ohio. African-American woman. Her husband is a UAW union member. Under normal traditional political circumstances, she would be a target for Democratic mailings. The Republican Party wouldn't waste the effort going after someone whose demographics would suggest she's a Democratic voter. What the voter vault told Republican strategists is that... she also sent her kinds to private schools. She was a golfer. She had, in the past, registered concern about abortion and was an active church-member. Suddenly Ms. Hill begins to receive very targetted appeals that speak to her concerns about sending her kids to private schools. She happens to be interested in vouchers. Suddenly there's a way for the Republican Party to communicate with her, to invite her to special events...
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Rehm: Doesn't marketing, after a period of time, lose its attractiveness?
Wallsten: Not if you're winning elections using it! This niche marketing we're talking about -- it shows itself in all forms. One example in the book is that the Republicans are so good at dividing up the electorate in such careful and, we think, such smart ways -- to look for ways to find new voters. Outside of Cleveland in 2004, they actually identified a community of Russian-speaking orthodox Jews. They went in and the rabbis actually ordered their congregants to vote, the men and the women. They had the yeshivas take the election day off so young girls could babysit and the moms could vote. They even had a rally entirely in Russian on the last weekend before the election where they brought in people on buses. By the end of the rally, everyone was standing up in the room and chanting Bush's name in thick Russian accents. This is the kind of marketing that has transformed politics.
The full interview, transcribed and edited for clarity, can be found at The Scribe.
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But the Democrats, disorganized and "without a clear message," may be staging a stronger than expected comeback
NPR's "Morning Edition" today began with the news that polls show Democrats significantly ahead, now, in the 2006 races for Congressional seats The poll was taken for NPR by Democrat Stan Greenberg and Republican Glenn Bolger. Here are some of their findings:
Midterm congressional elections aren't conducted nationally, district by district, so this poll ignores the districts where the incumbent is safe, and looks only at districts where either party might win.
"This one is different than any of our prior polls and is different than any of the national polls you get through the national media," says Democrat pollster Stan Greenberg. "This is a poll only done in the 50 competitive House races where, in fact, control of the House of Representatives will be decided."
Forty of those seats are currently held by republicans; 10 by democrats. And those contests are where both parties will be concentrating their resources come fall, says Republican pollster Glenn Bolger. "This is where the effort's going to be made," Bolger says. "This is where the money's going to be spent, and this is where the messages are going to be sharpest …This is where the House hangs in the balance."
In 2004, the total vote in these 50 districts went republican by about 12 points. In our current survey, voters in these same districts say they would vote for the Democrat over the Republican by about six points.
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Chart insert by Jeremy VanderKnyff, NPR, showing that in 50 largely Republican, competitive House districts, only 29 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for the incumbent.
Additional details and audio of the full report can be found at Morning Edition's website.
