Nate Silver takes a long look at who's going to win best picture, director, actor, actor(f), supporting actor, and supporting actor (f). He admits that, in past years, he's averaged only 75% accuracy. Who? Nate Silver? A 75 percenter?
His analysis involves ... well, he describes it this way: "Our method will now look solely at the other awards that were given out in the run-up to the Oscars: the closest equivalent to pre-election polls. These have always been the best predictors of Oscar success..."
Okay. Onward and upward.
Argo is way ahead. Spielberg is the director, but not much ahead of Ang Lee. Daniel Day-Lewis in a romp (and the reason I haven't wanted to see the pic). Jennifer Lawrence emerges with a respectable lead over Jessica Chastain. Tommy Lee Jones, in a romp (and the reason I may give in and watch "Lincoln"). And miserable Anne Hathaway.
Day-Lewis' earliest films ("My Left Foot" and "My Beautiful Laundrette") gave us a brilliant actor. From "Mohicans" on, he's been coasting.
Jennifer Lawrence is one of the best actors I've seen in years, a natural. Glad she's getting the award. Hope it doesn't start her trip downhill.
Mostly, I hope Nate Silver bats in the 90's, at least.