How is that possible? Well, the "structure of our economy" has changed. A few years ago, and for quite a while before that, "full employment" figure was unemployment at 5%. The reason for any "unemployment" at all is complicated, but it includes people between jobs and in similar transitional situations.
For now, the unemployment is dropping quite steadily.
On Friday, new unemployment numbers will be released for December. In last month's report, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7 percent, a four-year low. ...NPR
If that figure remains the same or decreases on Friday, we're within 2% of reaching "full employment." How's that? How is 6% "unemployment" suddenly full?
Well, it's those "structural changes." The new magic number for unemployment is 6%, the point at which we can boast full employment in the US according to economist Nariman Behravesh.
Could we find a new way of assessing unemployment that doesn't force us to gag on obscurantist lingo like "structural changes"? C'mon guys!
Stop measuring or at least emphasizing UE and instead put 90% of all focus on the number employed in full time jobs. I think we are still below the 07 peak there. 5 years on mind you and every year adds the need for 1 million more jobs needed because of population growth.
UE is a pile of dung, forgetaboutit. You know and 3% of the population know the UE number is determined as much by people leaving or entering the job market as it is by people actually having full time jobs.
Of course emphasizing full time jobs is destined to be a depressing exercise. Emphasizing UE is easy and more profitable for economists and commentators because it plays into the hands or our elites.
Posted by: rapier | January 03, 2013 at 04:43 PM
You have raised some interesting issues, Rapier, but I'd like to point out that statistics coming from institutions will generally reflect the interests of the institution rather than those of the consumer of the stats.
As it happens in my area, my land phone server is Verizon and they have a monopoly. Their rates and the bills are a scandal. Hidden in taxes and fees are some of Verizon's additional profits. Does this serve Verizon's customers in any way? Nope. But it works very well for Verizon.
Same with gov stats. They are only useful as a way of rooting out variations over time and/or (sometimes) figuring out just what any given bureaucracy or administration or system needs to exist. Our "elites" are simply people and institutions that have figured out the most effective way to to use various forms of communication and media to muffle their relative uselessness.
As for unemployment, let's start with 5% being "acceptable."
Posted by: PW | January 03, 2013 at 05:22 PM