The demographic changes in the American electorate have come with striking speed and have left many Republicans, who have not won as many electoral votes as Mr. Obama did on Tuesday in 24 years, concerned about their future. The Republicans’ Southern strategy, of appealing mostly to white voters, appears to have run into a demographic wall.
“Before, we thought it was an important issue, improving demographically,” said Al Cardenas, the chairman of the American Conservative Union. “Now, we know it’s an essential issue. You have to ignore reality not to deal with this issue.”The central problem for Republicans is that the Democrats’ biggest constituencies are growing. ...NYT
It comes down to something very basic: they're losing the big game.
A series of headlines in the New York Times tell the story: "Demographic Shift Brings New Worry for Republicans," "Senate Races Expose Extent of G.O.P.’s Gender Gap," and "Little to Show for Flood of Cash by Big Republican Donors." That last banner, in smaller caps, is a report about the deflation of Karl Rove, the GOP's leading expert and warrior in the area of campaign strategies and money. He was furious and then fizzled like a balloon before midnight on Tuesday when Fox called Ohio for the President.
Granted that Obama's campaign team -- twice now! -- have been the clear winners in strategy as well as amazingly deft when it comes to raising money and using it well.
In several competitive Senate races, high spending by outside groups was offset to a large extent with stronger fund-raising by Democratic candidates, assisted at the margins by Democratic super PACs. For much of the fall, Mr. Obama and Democratic groups broadcast at least as many ads, and sometimes more, in swing states than Mr. Romney and his allied groups, in part because Mr. Obama was able to secure lower ad rates by paying for most of the advertising himself. Mr. Romney relied far more on outside groups, which must pay higher rates. ...NYT
What's left for the GOP? Well, something not enough of us are paying attention to -- though just about every comment section in just about every report on the Republican party and every blog piece written about the right has at least one commenter who raises the subject of the heavy manipulation that's going on, state by state. The Republicans know they can't win now at national level unless they control events at state level. There's nothing very new about what's happening, but too few of us are paying attention to it.
So the GOP is focusing on electing Republican governors and state legislators, controlling the voting procedures, electing and/or buying judges, altering redistricting maps to their advantage.
The campaign isn't over. Catch up on your sleep but don't move into holiday mode. The fight has just begun.
Ezra Klein adds to the ongoing discussion about how and why the GOP lost a look at the demographics that have been about to bring them down for years and why they keep losing the popular vote.
"The severity of the GOP’s situation has been obscured by the fact that they tend to do better in midterm elections, where the electorate is older and whiter, and by the fact that the Supreme Court, and thus the electoral college, broke their way in 2000. Then came 9/11, and they won the 2004 election convincingly. But the reality is that the Republican Party has lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, and it’s only going to get harder for them from here.
If this election proved anything, it’s that the demographics are not going to backslide in the GOP’s direction. Rather, the GOP will have to move in the direction of the country’s changing demographics. The question of “how” will, I think, be the foremost question on the minds of the Republican Party’s top strategists in the coming months." ...Wonkblog, WaPo
On NPR this morning, in some interviews with people who stood in line to vote -- in crowds and for hours, including overnight in Miami -- it looks as though the big turnout for this election is only going to get bigger in 2016. The overnighter voter said something like, "Yeah, but next time I'm going to bring a cooler and a chair." Next time! Not F*** it! I'm never doing this again!
I'm wondering whether the Republican's stage 3 wasting disease -- the tea party -- will have been defeated by then. If not, winning elections will be the least of the GOP's worries.