Nate Silver declares this morning: "Ohio is central enough in the electoral math that it now seems to matter as much as the other 49 states put together."
Of course, nothing is quite that simple. But to the extent it's true ... now... in 2012, Ohio bears watching.
How close is the race according to national polls?
There were a remarkable number of them, 15, released on Monday. Pretty much every pollster with a pulse weighed in. (Unnecessarily meticulous note: I am excluding one case of a poll that was published on Monday but which conducted its interviewing back in September.)
Seven of the polls showed President Obama ahead, six had Mitt Romney ahead and two showed the race tied.
If you average the 15 polls, they show a tie, exactly. Neither candidate had an edge, even in the second decimal place.
There is a debatable case that Mr. Obama’s national polls are a pinch stronger than a week or so ago, when there was a period of a few days when they seemed to suggest that Mr. Obama was trailing by perhaps one percentage point. ...Nate Silver, 538