Yesterday afternoon, The Hill did a report on the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, showing "Romney has opened a 5-percentage-point lead over President Obama in the 12 battleground states that are critical to determining the outcome of the 2012 election."
The poll numbers are in dispute. Nate Silver, a steadier hand, reported (four hours later) that Obama is gaining.
National polls showed a modestly favorable trend for President Obama, allowing him to gain slightly in our forecast. (Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College are now 66.0 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight model, up from 63.4 percent on Sunday.) But the movement toward him was not anything extraordinary, serving only to offset some of the decline he experienced in the polls late last week, and to bring the national polls more in line with state-by-state surveys.
The state polls themselves were decent for Mitt Romney. But there weren’t all that many of them, and the trend that they showed — a four-point gain for Mr. Romney, on average, since the Denver debate on Oct. 3 — was in line with our previous understanding about the magnitude of his gains. ...538
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