Nothing has changed.
The Hill's latest survey "found 53 percent of voters believe Obama will triumph on Nov. 6, a huge swing from the 43 percent who held that view immediately before the Democratic convention early last month." That's not about "for" or "against" Obama; that's about what respondents think will happen.
The Hill also checks out the latest poll by the Washington Post with ABC News.
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday shows Obama with 49 percent support among registered voters to Romney’s 44, with the president up 49-47 among likely voters.
But among swing state voters surveyed, Obama holds a more commanding lead, with 52 percent support among likely voters to Romney at 41. ...The Hill
That's three (among hundreds) of possible categories for American voters: "registered," "likely," and "swing state." Most analysts give a lot of weight to the swingers.
But one interesting aspect of this is the crumbling of hope on the part of the (apparently) losing party -- the Republicans. The Hill also takes a look at that group -- GOP "insiders" and strategists (two more groups!).
With just five weeks before the presidential election, Republican strategists say Mitt Romney must quickly make his economic case against President Obama or else face defeat.
But party insiders are not confident he can do it, fearing he will continue to chase distractions rather than staying on message. Worse, they don’t agree among themselves about what Romney’s tactics should be — when debating Obama, in television advertising and other areas of his campaign. “What he is doing is not working, obviously,” said Republican strategist Ed Rollins ...The Hill
By and large what we're following when we follow the polls is what swingers and likelies are doing to screw up the lives of insiders and strategists. That's democracy, folks!