Ryan bump?

Not so much.

In Missouri, a new SurveyUSA poll put Mr. Romney just one point ahead of President Obama, with 45 percent of the vote to 44 percent.

This is a fairly poor number for Mr. Romney — who had led in our Missouri forecast by six percentage points previously — but not quite as bad as it looks. This is SurveyUSA’s first poll of Missouri so far this cycle, but its polls in other states have been a bit Democratic-leaning relative to the consensus. Perhaps more important, Missouri is no longer a state that plays a critical role in the electoral math. Mr. Romney could lose it. (His chances of doing so rose to 18 percent from 15 percent on the new survey.) But he had a reasonably big cushion there from previous polling, and the state will probably only flip to Mr. Obama in the event that he is winning the Electoral College decisively.

The only potential worry for Mr. Romney is that about half of the interviews in the SurveyUSA poll were conducted after his selection of Mr. Ryan — but since there are no trendlines for comparison, I don’t think we can read too much into that. ...538, NYT

Obama is down by a point to a three-point lead in New Hampshire, but on the whole "Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the state were roughly unchanged, declining to 72 percent from 73 percent," Nate Silver writes.

And Ryan's early numbers?  NPR has been making a pretty big deal of the Florida yesterday where the cheers were loud and clear.  But that may have been a fluke.  Nationally, the polls are "middling to poor."

... A few polls were released that were dedicated to Mr. Ryan specifically, and they offered mediocre numbers for the Republican ticket.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted after Mr. Romney’s announcement, found that 38 percent of Americans had a favorable view of Mr. Ryan, and 33 percent had an unfavorable one.

The good news for Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan is that those numbers were improved from polling that ABC News conducted just before the announcement, when 23 percent of adults had a favorable impression of Mr. Ryan and 33 percent an unfavorable one.

But that is countered by two pieces of bad news. First, Mr. Ryan’s numbers are middling to poor by the standard of other recent vice-presidential selections. And second, the period immediately after a vice-presidential announcement has often been a high-water mark for the new candidate. ...538, NYT

Comments

[Smooth Jazz]

First off, I think it is WAY too early to assess how Ryan will impact the race or Romney's prospects. Libs needs to step back and waity for the dust to settle before claiming victory based on single day polls taken a day or 2 after Ryan was chosen.

Second, and perhaps most important: What is the partisan breakdown (Dems versus Reps) of the polls you are citing. Polls that interview 20% more Dems than Repubs are not representative of what the electorate will looks like in Nov. A number of recent polls such as Pew, CNN, Reuters, even FOX, show partisan breakdown of 40% Dem, Rep 20%, 40% Rep. That is prepostrous and is obviously juiced with more Dems to boost Obama.

The Daily Tracking polls show a much more reasonable partisan split (ie Dem 35%, Rep 33%, Ind 32%), and show the race tied or Romney ahead. All the Obama juiced polls showing Dems with a +10 or +20 demo advantage over Repubs has never happened before in history and WILL NOT happen in 2012. 2008 was a great year for the Dems & Obama and that was Dems +7 (D 38, Rep 31, Ind 31).