Don't forget: we have 55 x 2 days before voting day and this is only one two-day indicator. But here it is -- from Five Thirty-Eight, one of the best analytical columns in the bizness.
With five national polls out on Tuesday, and three in crucial swing states, we’ve finally moved out of the poll doldrums. This data tells a somewhat ambiguous story. But our model, in sorting through everything, has Mitt Romney slightly improving his position. He’s up to a 33.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, from 32.8 percent on Monday.
To be sure, President Obama got his share of good news, in particular a poll showing him eight points ahead in Virginia. But that poll comes from a firm, Public Policy Polling, that has frequently shown good results for Mr. Obama, so it’s more of a ground-rule double for him than a home run. ...538
The latest five state polls, including those in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, showed him ahead of Mitt Romney by a margin of at least six points.
But our presidential forecast was unmoved – literally. It gives Mr. Obama a 66.1 percent chance of being re-elected, exactly the same number as on Tuesday. Why no change?
The reason is pretty simple: the polls were broadly in line with the model’s previous expectations, which had Mr. Obama as a seven-point favorite in Wisconsin, for instance, and five points ahead in Pennsylvania. ...538
There's more, but what it tell us is that the long-term, long-established forecast is the same:
Frankly, very little has changed so far in our assessment of the presidential race. In the month that we’ve been publishing model updates, the projected Nov. 6 result has pretty much always featured about a two-point lead for Mr. Obama. Sometimes that lead has moved a little closer to three points, and sometimes a little closer to one point, but it’s remained in a very tight range. ...538