Don't forget: we have 55 x 2 days before voting day and this is only one two-day indicator. But here it is -- from Five Thirty-Eight, one of the best analytical columns in the bizness.
Tuesday:
With five national polls out on Tuesday, and three in crucial swing states, we’ve finally moved out of the poll doldrums. This data tells a somewhat ambiguous story. But our model, in sorting through everything, has Mitt Romney slightly improving his position. He’s up to a 33.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, from 32.8 percent on Monday.
To be sure, President Obama got his share of good news, in particular a poll showing him eight points ahead in Virginia. But that poll comes from a firm, Public Policy Polling, that has frequently shown good results for Mr. Obama, so it’s more of a ground-rule double for him than a home run. ...538
Wednesday:
The latest five state polls, including those in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, showed him ahead of Mitt Romney by a margin of at least six points.
But our presidential forecast was unmoved – literally. It gives Mr. Obama a 66.1 percent chance of being re-elected, exactly the same number as on Tuesday. Why no change?
The reason is pretty simple: the polls were broadly in line with the model’s previous expectations, which had Mr. Obama as a seven-point favorite in Wisconsin, for instance, and five points ahead in Pennsylvania. ...538
There's more, but what it tell us is that the long-term, long-established forecast is the same:
Frankly, very little has changed so far in our assessment of the presidential race. In the month that we’ve been publishing model updates, the projected Nov. 6 result has pretty much always featured about a two-point lead for Mr. Obama. Sometimes that lead has moved a little closer to three points, and sometimes a little closer to one point, but it’s remained in a very tight range. ...538
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