Home and car sales are up. Simple as that. But from then on it gets complicated, if the first few paragraphs of the latest economic report are true.
Call it a firming up, if not quite a comeback.
Economists at many of the most-watched forecasting organizations, both public and private, expect growth to pick up through the summer and into the fall, although only to a pace broadly considered sluggish, if not dismal.
This week, Macroeconomic Advisers, an economic consultancy often cited by policy makers, estimated the annual rate of growth in the second quarter at just 1.2 percent — well below the pace needed to reduce the unemployment rate. But the firm also projected growth to accelerate to around 2.4 percent in the third quarter.
“The pace of economic growth is picking up, but not to a rate that is very robust,” said Joel Prakken, the chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers. “It certainly is no great shakes.” ...NYT
Republicans want a huge dip and they want it now, no academic shilly-shallying. "Obamaconomy" or "democrash" is what they're looking for. This "Labor Department reported that new claims for jobless benefits dropped to their lowest level in four years" stuff is deeply annoying, even frightening, for them. Here's another blow:
Economists pointed to surging new car sales as a good economic indicator: a sign that households are confident enough to make a major purchase and that they are accessing the credit markets. It is also a boon for auto businesses — the auto industry reported a 22 percent jump in sales in June, with some carmakers reporting that revenue increased as much as 60 percent year-on-year.
“The surge in car sales is disproportionately important,” said Ian Shepherdson, an economist and forecaster at High Frequency Economics. “It means that you’re willing and able to take out a loan — and that’s quite a good sign.”
Moreover, there are accumulating signs that housing has turned around, perhaps auguring a rise in residential investment, an upturn in construction jobs and growing sales. ...NYT
The last thing Boehner and Mitch McConnell and the tea partyers want to hear is that the June job figures may be revised upward.
Some economists pointed to private forecasts showing a stronger June than the one depicted in government reports. A Bureau of Labor Statistics survey showed that employers added just 80,000 new positions that month — not enough to bring the unemployment rate down from its elevated rate of 8.2 percent.
But a closely watched monthly survey showed that private sector employers added a strong 176,000 jobs in June. ...NYT