Republican chances of taking over the Senate have improved again in this week’s forecast. They are now 22 percent — up from 18 percent last week and 15 percent two weeks ago. Republican chances are now approaching the point where they stood prior to the Delaware primary, when they had peaked at 26 percent before Christine O’Donnell’s victory.
There are six states currently held by Democrats where Republicans have at least a 75 percent chance of winning, according to the model. These are North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado. Although some of these races — particularly Wisconsin and Colorado — could tighten, the G.O.P. has a fairly strong chance to win all six if they are having a good night overall. (They will probably win North Dakota, Arkansas and Indiana even if they are having a disappointing night.) ...Nate Silver
Democrats in Arkansas, who have long dominated state and local offices despite the state’s essentially conservative electorate, have not been in this much trouble for as long as anyone can remember, at least anyone who was not around during Reconstruction. ...
... The Democrats’ trouble runs from top to bottom. In poll after poll, Blanche Lincoln, the senior senator, is trailing her Republican challenger, John Boozman, the state’s lone Republican congressman. ...NYT
___A new poll suggests Republican businessman Rick Scott is leading Democrat Alex Sink in the race to become Florida's next governor.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Friday shows Scott favored by 49 percent of 1,151 likely voters to 43 percent who preferred Sink, the state's chief financial officer. The survey was taken between Sept. 23 and 28 and it claims a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. ...AP/NYT