Babak Safaraz, an Iranian journalist writing under a pseudonym for the Nation, reports that compromise is the likely solution in Iran. On the one hand the reform movement is growing and increasingly influential while hard-core supporters of the Ahmadinejad government won't give in.
What's more, the Ahmadinejad government will likely have a tough time in
the next four years managing the economy and the state while a robust
civil disobedience movement is thriving in the country. Already,
Tehran's economy has entered a mild recession, dragged down by the
weeks-long protests and the symbolic acts of resistance such as
withdrawing money from government-owned banks.
The protest movement has robbed the government of much of its international legitimacy in its dealings with the outside world. But according to the academic, the Green Wave movement has very little chance of toppling the regime or, even if it did manage to do so, remaining in power given that there are up to a million hard-core supporters of the regime in Iran. "There are officially 140,000 individuals who have signed up for suicide missions," said the academic. "Of these perhaps 5 percent could be said to be serious candidates for the job. That is roughly 7,000 individuals. Who could run a country with 7,000 such individuals in a permanent state of opposition?" According to this scholar, the present situation is a lose-lose game for the Green Wave in the long term. "A compromise solution would be the best possible deal for Iran--one that ends the dictatorial rule of the hardliners while giving them a share of the control over the political and cultural life according to their social weight in society." Moussavi is said to favor this solution himself. Last month in a verbal exchange with a Grand Ayatollah who had urged moderation on the Green Wave, Moussavi indicated some vague interest in a compromise deal if the Grand Ayatollah would personally intercede in the negotiations.
The protest movement has robbed the government of much of its international legitimacy in its dealings with the outside world. But according to the academic, the Green Wave movement has very little chance of toppling the regime or, even if it did manage to do so, remaining in power given that there are up to a million hard-core supporters of the regime in Iran. "There are officially 140,000 individuals who have signed up for suicide missions," said the academic. "Of these perhaps 5 percent could be said to be serious candidates for the job. That is roughly 7,000 individuals. Who could run a country with 7,000 such individuals in a permanent state of opposition?" According to this scholar, the present situation is a lose-lose game for the Green Wave in the long term. "A compromise solution would be the best possible deal for Iran--one that ends the dictatorial rule of the hardliners while giving them a share of the control over the political and cultural life according to their social weight in society." Moussavi is said to favor this solution himself. Last month in a verbal exchange with a Grand Ayatollah who had urged moderation on the Green Wave, Moussavi indicated some vague interest in a compromise deal if the Grand Ayatollah would personally intercede in the negotiations.
Juan Cole has more -- and an update on the state of Iran's economy in the face of sliding oil prices.
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