There are three legs on this US-Georgia-crisis stool -- international politics, humanitarian considerations, and domestic politics -- and they all look dodgy. First of all, the Decider, having promised Georgia some quick help from our Navy steaming into the Black Sea (albeit humanitarian aid, not military support) has had to back off. Why? Turkey hasn't yet given permission and we couldn't exactly get the right ships there in time anyway.
"As of late Thursday, Ankara, a NATO ally, hadn't cleared any U.S. naval vessels to steam to Georgia through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, the narrow straits that connect the Mediterranean and the Black Seas, the officials said. Under the 1936 Montreaux Convention, countries must notify Turkey before sending warships through the straits.
"Pentagon officials told McClatchy that they were increasingly dubious that any U.S. Navy vessels would join the aid operation, in large part because the U.S.-based hospital ships likely to go, the USNS Comfort and the USNS Mercy, would take weeks to arrive." ... McClatchy
Politically and militarily, we are dependent on Turkey in that region. We've lost a lot of heft. We're not the USA we were when we (idiotically) stormed into Iraq and wasted the strength of our military, our national treasury, and our international reputation during an indefensible invasion followed by a long occupation -- five years and counting. No wonder an ally like Turkey is holding its nose and looking away from us. Bottom line: we haven't got the goods. McClatchy's Washington Bureau is looking at Bush and calling it "another flub."
"American officials on Thursday ended speculation that the U.S. military might come to the rescue of Georgia's beleaguered government, confirming Russia's virtual takeover of the former Soviet republic and heralding Moscow's reemergence as the dominant power in eastern Europe.
"'I don't see any prospect for the use of military force by the United States in this situation. Is that clear enough?' Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told reporters in his first public comments since the crisis began Aug. 7.
"'The empire strikes back,' said Ariel Cohen, a Russia expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C." ... McClatchy
Right. We're flaunting our anti-missile base agreement (costly! provocative!) with Poland. This just pisses Russia off even more.
Republicans, the party of Gingrich, Starr, Rove, Bush, McCain, and the massive, restive defense industry, just can't hack it politically without a military threat. A renewal of the Cold War is just what the party needs as it tries to recover from Bush-Cheney's unpopular adventures in militarism and authoritarianism. As the American people yawn and sneer at the "war on terror," Republicans need Russia just as Russian politics need American militarism.
Thanks to Russia, McCain has become the next Republican president overnight. Forget the election. It's a done deal.
"Standing behind a lectern in Michigan this week, with two trusted senators ready to do his bidding, John McCain seemed to forget for a moment that he was only running for president.
"Asked about his tough rhetoric on the ongoing conflict in Georgia, McCain began: 'If I may be so bold, there was another president . . .'
"He caught himself and started again: 'At one time, there was a president named Ronald Reagan who spoke very strongly about America's advocacy for democracy and freedom.'
"...Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili says he talks to McCain, a personal friend, several times a day. McCain's top foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, was until recently a paid lobbyist for Georgia's government. McCain also announced this week that two of his closest allies, Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.), would travel to Georgia's capital of Tbilisi on his behalf, after a similar journey by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
"The extent of McCain's involvement in the military conflict in Georgia appears remarkable among presidential candidates, who traditionally have kept some distance from unfolding crises out of deference to whoever is occupying the White House." ... Washington Post
Bush morphs into McCain without interference from that uppity Democratic candidate. Cancel the conventions.
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