Obama v Clinton in PA. Who's ahead? (And why?)

This morning, as we reported earlier, we heard a Philadelphia reporter say that a new poll shows Obama and Clinton neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania.  Then later in the morning we heard a laconic NPR analyst declare that Clinton is still way ahead.  Now we learn that, in fact, one poll shows Obama ahead, having surged (a genuine surge, not a Bush-type surge!) 26 points in the past several weeks. 

David Paul Kuhn updates the numbers in a report at Politico:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is surging in Pennsylvania, according to several new polls. In one survey, released by Public Policy Polling this morning, Obama is now leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the first time, 45 percent to 43 percent. That represents a closing of a 26-percentage-point Clinton advantage from only two and a half weeks ago.

All that, and he got to eat some pata negra too.

The Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary is scheduled for April 22.

Obama’s gains are largely due to a narrowing of the gap with white voters—29-percentage points according to PPP—but he continues to trail Clinton 49 to 38 percent among whites. In mid-March, according to PPP, Clinton led 63 percent to 23 percent among whites. That mid-March poll occurred prior to Obama’s race speech, at the height of the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The PPP poll of 1224 likely Democratic primary voters between March 31 and April 1, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent, found that Obama has improved by double digits with both white women and white men. Today, PPP has Clinton leading 56 percent to 31 percent with white women. Obama leads 44 percent to 43 percent with white men.

Obama also improved with black voters, long his base. He now captures the support of three in four African Americans in the state.

Other polling groups have different numbers.  Rasmussen and Survey USA show Obama still behind to a greater or lesser extent.

Obama has a massive and very well organized campaign with a huge number of volunteers and a very smooth get-out-the-vote effort going on everywhere.   So it's no surprise that he has a plan to reshape the electorate to give him a serious shot at the presidency.  Here's part of a report on that reshaping effort, also in Politico today.

In the Obama campaign, youth turnout and Internet-based organizing - so often promised, and rarely delivered in the past - have been made real. And the first black nominee could reach deep into the large non-voting tracts within the African-American community.

"There's the potential here to change American politics for a while. Under-35 voters are just so overwhelmingly Democrats. Getting them registered is a simple, important, not-easy part of that — and Obama can," said Jim Jordan, a consultant who ran the independent group that headed Democrats' national field operation in 2004, America Coming Together. "And the voters who do register will actually vote. African-American voters, under-30 voters will be hugely self-motivated. They'll get to the polls in numbers that aren't typical for new registrants, and they'll do it on their own, on top of the strong turn out mechanics that the Obama guys will surely bring to bear."

Michael Slater, the deputy director of the non-partisan Project Vote, also said he found the Obama campaign's hopes of a dramatic increase in the participation "very plausible" for younger and black voters, groups, he said, which are under-represented in the electorate.

"There's a long history of a lot of hype not delivering on election day," he said. But in this case, "there certainly is a great potential for an African-American candidate to appeal to some voters who have been out of the electorate."

Obama's massive, smoothly integrated volunteer organization has been a mainstay of his campaign. It has been central to his success in caucus states such as Minnesota and Idaho, where a volunteer army - organized online - preceded and noticeably bolstered his staff's organizing efforts, helping to build the huge victory margins that have made him the frontrunner.

His voter registration efforts have drawn far less attention. But they were there from the start. When Obama toured Iowa last February in his first campaign swing, his campaign brought along voter registration cards. As the race there heated up, voter registration became a quiet focus, with registration drives in colleges and even high schools that helped drive Obama's victory.

South Carolina, Hildebrand said, was the site of another intensive effort. "A great case study for voter registration was the South Carolina primary, where we dramatically expanded the African-American vote and dramatically expanded the youth vote," he said. "It was such a big part of getting us to that 28-point margin of victory."

Another high-stakes voter registration drive just concluded in Pennsylvania, where the deadline to register as a Democrat and participate in the primary was March 24. The Pennsylvania Department of State reports that more than 234,000 voters have either newly registered as Democrats or switched from other parties, and the state hasn't finished counting the new registrations>

...The recent Pennsylvania drive reveals elements of that effort. It includes a traditional ground operation, with staffers flooding the state from offices across Pennsylvania. Obama also ran radio ads aimed at young people and at African-Americans, encouraging them to register. His website, meanwhile, includes a section that facilitates registration in each of the primary states by filling out a completed registration form in each of the states, and offering details on where and how to submit it>

But Obama - whose campaign is entwined with his biography on many levels - has also made his own experience registering voters part of the story, something that's likely to gain a higher profile as national efforts step up.

Comments

[Jim W]

Check this out. Matier and Ross are political columnists for the San Francisco Chronicle.

Bill Clinton's tirade stunned some delegates
Phillip Matier,Andrew Ross
Wednesday, April 2, 2008

The Bill Clinton who met privately with California's superdelegates at last weekend's state convention was a far cry from the congenial former president who afterward publicly urged fellow Democrats to "chill out" over the race between his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Barack Obama.
In fact, before his speech Clinton had one of his famous meltdowns Sunday, blasting away at former presidential contender Bill Richardson for having endorsed Obama, the media and the entire nomination process.
"It was one of the worst political meetings I have ever attended," one superdelegate said.
According to those at the meeting, Clinton - who flew in from Chicago with bags under his eyes - was classic old Bill at first, charming and making small talk with the 15 or so delegates who gathered in a room behind the convention stage.
But as the group moved together for the perfunctory photo, Rachel Binah, a former Richardson delegate who now supports Hillary Clinton, told Bill how "sorry" she was to have heard former Clinton campaign manager James Carville call Richardson a "Judas" for backing Obama.
It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade.
"Five times to my face (Richardson) said that he would never do that," a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted.
The former president then went on a tirade that ran from the media's unfair treatment of Hillary to questions about the fairness of the votes in state caucuses that voted for Obama. It ended with him asking delegates to imagine what the reaction would be if Obama was trailing by just 1 percent and people were telling him to drop out.
"It was very, very intense," said one attendee. "Not at all like the Bill of earlier campaigns."
When he finally wound down, Bill was asked what message he wanted the delegates to take away from the meeting.
At that point, a much calmer Clinton outlined his message of party unity.
"It was kind of strange later when he took the stage and told everyone to 'chill out,' " one delegate told us.
"We couldn't help but think he was also talking to himself."
When delegate Binah - still stunned from her encounter with Clinton - got home to Little River (Mendocino County) later in the day - there was a phone message waiting for her from State Party Chairman Art Torres, telling her the former president wanted him to apologize to her on his behalf for what happened.
Still, word of Clinton's blast shot all the way back to the New Mexico state Capitol, where Richardson spokesman Pahl Shipley reiterated Tuesday that his boss had never "promised or guaranteed" Bill and Hillary his endorsement.

[PW]

Bill Clinton so closely resembles people that I've known (and Hillary too) that I have to be careful not to overreact to this. But it's very familiar, to say the least. It's an unpleasant report.

Even during the annoyances (delays, disorganization) of the caucuses here last weekend, I continued to marvel at the civilized behaviors of our fellow Democrats -- Hillaries and Baracks alike. The scrupulous care with which everyone proceeded, the effort to make the minority feel as though every rule had been followed, every i dotted and t crossed, was wonderful to watch. The attitude of the voters is at great variance with the kind of behaviors coming out of the Clinton campaign -- it's a very good reason to keep them out of the White House. We really can't afford eight more years of road ragers.

A lot is at stake for the Clintons in particular. I can't help but think that they're messing up big time not just in terms of this race but in terms of their future as respected leaders.

[KAREE - Wyoming]

I do not blame Bill for telling these super-delgates the truth - Hillary has never been treated fairley by the media & believe me I watch all 3 cable news chanels all day long - you can say I am a political junky!! They just keep gong on & on about this Bosnia trip - well I went on line and had the pleasure (Newsweek Politics) & read the Blog by LESSA MUSCATINE & MELANNE VERVEER (two staff members who traveled with her & they tell a very different story,Why can we find out this info but the media wont even try to be fair. This is why Hillary supporters are so angry because they never give her a break - but this O-bama can do nothing wrong - We do not even know where this Muslim stepfather is & why he keeps saying he was raised by a single Mother,well he certainly lived in Indonesia and went to a Muslim school, We all know all of Bill & Hillarys relatives (good or bad) but he is so secretive about the grandparents, his mother, brothers & sisters etc. but no way will the media look into any of this - they only ran with the wright story because they had no choice - the tapes are thier for every-one to see, but o his speech just erased it all away - He has no idea what is in store for him in the GE - I cant wait till the swift boaters get ahold of him - he will never get elected president and I hope all Hillary suporters (including myself) vote for John McCain.