Suddenly yesterday the news filtered up to the great national news gatekeepers -- weeks and maybe months after Texas bloggers began posting on this subject -- and allowed as how Tom DeLay is losing in his own Texas District 22. Not just losing, but sinking, tanking, dying. He's got some Republican would-be replacements running in the primary and one Republican turned Independent, but Nick Lampson, the Democrat, is polling the strongest so far for the mid-terms.
Out of curiosity, surprised that so many regard this as new news, I googled the sources this morning and that brought me to a blog I haven't seen before, Swing State Project, which picked up on the Houston Chronicle story and its new poll figures.
In case you haven't seen the results, here's some freshly-made jam for your Texas toast this Sunday morning:
Even if heavy coverage of DeLay's problems last week caused some of the drop in support, DeLay has reason for concern when only half the people who voted for him in 2004 say they will again.
"Those are the kinds of signs that no candidate wants to have, especially one who still has legal battles coming up," said Bob Stein of Rice University, who conducted the poll with Richard Murray of the University of Houston.
DeLay may be able to win back the undecided voters, but he starts with the disadvantage of a 60 percent unfavorable rating in the district he has represented for 20 years. Only 28 percent view him favorably, according to the poll.
That's barely half of the 50 percent favorable rating DeLay received in a poll conducted for the Chronicle last spring by Zogby International.
"I go a lot on the way somebody talks, and he doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feelings," said Robert Jones of Pearland, who has supported DeLay but rated him unfavorably in the Chronicle survey last week. Jones, who voted in the 2004 Republican primary and considers himself an independent, said he hasn't decided whom he will support this year.
According to the new poll, 38 percent have changed their opinion of DeLay in the past year. And of those, 91 percent view him less favorably...
...There's no evidence that DeLay's dwindling support represents a tarnishing of GOP strength in the 22nd District. Forty-two percent identify themselves as Republicans, 27 percent as Democrats and 23 percent as independents. Republican President Bush enjoys a 55 percent approval rating in the district. Stein and Murray said DeLay is likely to win the Republican primary but not unscathed.
In the general election, he would face former U.S. Rep Nick Lampson, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary and polls highest among the probable November candidates...
People who go with the 'warm and fuzzy' are dangerous.
Posted by: Ken Melvin | January 15, 2006 at 11:04 AM
Ken! I think of you as definitely warm and fuzzy. Don't tell me you're slippery and human!
Posted by: PW | January 15, 2006 at 11:32 AM