A rather dispiriting piece of news about some polling in the Washington Post today led me on an interesting chase. First the poll:
Democrats fumed last week at Vice President Cheney's suggestion that criticism of the administration's war policies was itself becoming a hindrance to the war effort. But a new poll indicates most Americans are sympathetic to Cheney's point. Seventy percent of people surveyed said that criticism of the war by Democratic senators hurts troop morale -- with 44 percent saying morale is hurt "a lot," according to a poll taken by RT Strategies. Even self-identified Democrats agree: 55 percent believe criticism hurts morale, while 21 percent say it helps morale.
Thing is, I'd never heard of "RT Strategies." In the past, inquiries into unknown firms often reveal a heavy bias or tie to some rightwing corporate interest. But in this case, it turns out RT Strategies are closely allied to Charlie Cook and the Cook Report. So they're probably pretty reliable? Or so I guess. Turns out the Cook Report/RT Strategies have also done a poll on 2008 front runners.
The two presumptive favorites for 2008 presidential nominations each face enormous challenges, according to the new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national poll. Indeed, their problems are almost mirror opposites of each other. For New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrats and Democratic primary voters nationwide are highly receptive to her strengths and downplay her weaknesses. But among independents the view is considerably cooler, and is downright cold among Republicans, raising real questions of electability. On the other hand, if Arizona Sen. John McCain were as well regarded among Republicans and GOP primary voters as he is among independents and Democrats, he'd be a cinch to be his party's 2008 nominee.
The new Cook Political Report poll of 1,001 adults nationwide (margin of error +/- 3.1 percent) was conducted by RT Strategies, a newly established bipartisan corporate/public affairs polling firm headed by Thom Riehle, former president of Ipsos Public Affairs and a veteran of the Peter Hart and Patrick Caddell Democratic polling firms, and Lance Tarrance, who was one of the pioneering Republican pollsters in the 1970s and 1980s. Tarrance sold his firm 15 years ago and joined the board of the Gallup Organization and went to Beijing to set up Gallup China.
So okay, what about Hillary (certainly not my front-runner!) vs. Sleaze McCain? It's a very detailed survey, one which reveals things like the fact that so many believe in McCain's "integrity." I don't, do you?
The bottom line is that each party's presumptive front-runner faces an enormous challenge: Clinton has to find a way to connect with independent and at least a few Republican voters, while McCain has to bond with members of his own party. Each of their tasks are likely to meet strong resistance. The logical next question is whether the issue of electability begins to erode Clinton's support inside her own party, and if it does not, whether McCain's argument that he is the only Republican who can defeat Clinton will be enough for him to prevail in the primaries.
Oh, and something tells me that both Riehle and Tarrance are a little too mossy to be wholly reliable.
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